That also proves that price isn't the only thing that matters, since the N64 was cheaper than the PS1, or at least the PS1 was more expensive at it's launch than the N64 was at it's launch.

It will never happen, Wii is just a fad!

 Ah, but that's where it's interesting. Sony and Microsoft are both relying on people who already game to get their consoles, whereas Nintendo is getting at the 26% of the population (in America at least) who don't game. And gamers who are interested in MGS4 or whatever "hardcore" game you're offering probably already have a HD console anyway.

 If you were someone who has never gamed before, which would you be more interested in: Wii Sports/Fit, or Metal Gear?

That's where that X factor comes in....it's the thing that gets everybody excited, everybody talking about one's system. The PS1 had the CD's and played into the people's hearts with their PR and games. The PS2 did it better with DVD's, which has now become the standard for all movies when it replaced the VHS. And now the Wii is doing it with its motion-based controller. Sony tried using Blu-Ray as its "X factor" and thought, just like you, that price did not matter. Now they have to cut prices like Nintendo did in the past in order to catch up because their "gimmick" (yes, gimmicks are used by everybody and is not supposed to be considered a bad thing) was not as catchy as they thought it would be. Will they catch up and succeed in regaining its lead? Who knows...weird things happen all the time. I honestly believe that though the PS3 may stay at third place, or even reach to second place, it may not become number one again this generation....and I don't think that is a bad thing. I think its a good thing if Sony gets a wake up call and realize what gamers really need; fun games that can get everybody interested in it. 

I think the Nintendo numbers are close, the 360 numbers a little less predictable, and the PS3 numbers are a total shot in the dark.

That said, I do believe that Wii 08 fiscal year figures will be fairly close, if not equal to PS3 and 360 figures combined.

If someone was paying me, however, I would state it a little less absolutely than these guys did.

All depends what Wii games come out during the Holiday season since it will be tough for the wii to compete with allthose big games coming out for 360/ps3. Just have to wait until E3.

I didn't bother doing a thorough number crunching, but those predictions look pretty realistic to me. A tad optimistic, but much better than the "Wii will do 11M lifetime lol" garbage we had to endure well into 2007.

Of course we can't say for sure with so many uncertainties.

- How well will the upcoming games boost the 360 and PS3?
- How much will Nintendo increase production by?
- Are Nintendo stocking Wiis because they're already meeting their financial year prediction, and planning on shipping them all as soon as the next one starts?
- What consoles are going to get price cuts?

In 2008 the Wii accounts for about 47% marketshare (with the PS3 and XBox 360 representing 53%), an above average holiday boost for the Wii and below average boost for the PS3 and XBox 360 can easily reverse these positions.

 What kind of holiday boost would do that?

Look at last year:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

If the Wii wasn't supply limited it could have sold 9 to 10 Million units. If you get a similar performance (with the Wii having adequate supply) then the Wii could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 combined by 2 to 3 Million; if it is remarkably lucky and sells like the Nintendo DS did last year it could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 by 5+ Million.