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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch make it to 20 million?

Nautilus on 17 January 2017
Pinkie_pie said:
Nautilus said:
Oh boz, tagging this for the future.Going to be fun to read these kinds of predictions.

switch not making it to 20 mil is more realistic than switch making it to 100 mil. but yeah, both predictions are terrible tbh

Hey, at least I put an effort in my prediction.You cant say the same for this one.



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rolltide101x on 17 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
You must be the reason why people hate Donald Trump so much and dismiss everything he says.

Except the people who voted him into office.



pastro243 on 17 January 2017

At least 40 IMO



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pcstation4 on 17 January 2017
Johnw1104 said:
I can only guarantee that it will make it to 1.

Safe prediction.



Pinkie_pie on 17 January 2017
Nautilus said:
Pinkie_pie said:

switch not making it to 20 mil is more realistic than switch making it to 100 mil. but yeah, both predictions are terrible tbh

Hey, at least I put an effort in my prediction.You cant say the same for this one.

true. your prediction was understandable considering you didnt know about the pricing and paid online service. i think if it was $200 at launch with good amount of stock and free online service it might reach 100 mil.



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Insidb on 17 January 2017
Normchacho said:
Insidb said:

I agree; there's too much unpredictability in the future of the handheld market.

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that it will sell more than the Wii U. Simply because it doesn't seem to be garbage. But the handheld market does seem to be contracting, and I think people need to remember that a sizeable chunk of 3DS sales have come from people replacing theirs with newer systems. Whether it be going form the origional 3DS to the XL, or the 3DS to the New 3DS. So they may have sold 65 million systems, but not to 65 million people.

I was comparing this gen to last gen, and it's down 67%! that number is staggering and makes you wonder if the Wii was simply a fluke success or if the home console market has also significantly contracted. Being an owner of the current gen systems, I can honestly (forgive me) say that I play Final Fantasy Record Keeper on my iPhone WAY more than any of the games on my 3DS.



Xenostar on 18 January 2017
Goodnightmoon said:
Lmao, in some years this threads are gonna be comedy, I don't know what's more hilarious, the 20m prediction for Switch or the 150m for Ps4

Yeah i remember being laughed at for my 16M predictions for Wii U, Good Times.



tak13 on 18 January 2017
Insidb said:
FloatingWaffles said:

The Nintendo Switch is both the new nintendo handheld and console.

The 3DS sold 61.6 million.
The Wii U sold 13.6 million.

Of the 3DS userbase, let's say only 25 million decide they want the next Nintendo handheld.
Of the Wii U userbase, let's say only 6 million decide they want the next Nintendo console.
And let's say of all of those that 10 million would have bought both the handheld and console seperately if it was the same situation as 3DS and Wii U, but now they just have to buy one single system since the Switch is both. 

That's already 41 million.

The Switch will have Pokemon, Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Mario, Zelda, etc, etc. All of which could get the Switch to and PAST 20 million just by themselves.

So yes, I imagine the Switch will easily surpass 20 million. 

Of that 61.6 million 3DS customer base, keep in mind that handheld sales are down 67%, gen-on-gen. 

That translates to the next-gen handheld (the NS and maybe something else) projecting to ~20 million and your 25 million in migrants becoming ~8 million.

When all is said and done, the 41 million ends up lookign more like 24 million.

Thank the rise of mobile gaming for that.

For you only 7th gen counts? What about 6th (GBA) and 4th+5th ( GB+GBC)

 

Based on 6th gen comparision, I surmise that what mobile has done to the market is to vanish the irregular and steep growth of 7th gen and maybe stolen some of the core audience ( at least  In the USA ) , not killing it...

Should I have predicted that Ps4 would sell 50-70m because ps3 was down compared to ps2 by 90%?

 

Also, after pokemon go effect, can we be more optimistic about nintendo handheld console market ( I'm specifying it, because essentially Nintendo is the handheld console market... ), please?



tak13 on 18 January 2017

As for the topic... Ignoring that it could be the 3ds successor, It should do 20m, it's just 6m more than what wii u did in only four years... Come on people!
Even wiii u could have done that if it didn't had that short life and got a price drop...

This time I think that Nintendo has provided for the future to be able to reduce as much as possible switch price, so it could reach the 199$ price point in three-five years... A sweet spot, many people skipped wii u owing to its price, many of them were wanting one at 199$ but it never got there or to be precise, never had a price cut, since Nintendo would bleed money due to the costly tablet controller...
Wii u was never popular, so I wouldn't be surprised if its components were more expensive than they were earlier in its life!

That must be why Nintendo hastened its successor, low sales but also low profits ( and losses in the first few years ), is a damaging combination, and Nintendo cares for profits. If wii u was sufficiently profitable, switch would come fairly later! What to expect when your undesired or badly executed controller adds 80$ to the manufacturing cost and 110$ to its commercial price?



asqarkabab on 18 January 2017

Wii numbers



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