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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

bluetoad on 23 October 2016

Nintendo portable consoles have never sold less than 60 mill (forget Virtual boy). So the fact it is a home console as well then it has a shot at 100 mill.



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Nautilus on 23 October 2016
DM235 said:
I can confidently say that it will sell zero units this year (pre-orders don't count).

I can also confidently say that the launch NS SKU will not sell anywhere close to 100 million units.

If the NS launches at $199, it will sell 40+ million units. If it launches at $250 or more, it will sell less than 25 million units (basically just to the Nintendo fanbase). I think this will hold true no matter what the other specs are (hardware specs, online capabilities, battery life, etc).

Why?Because its a Nintendo console?You think people will see the Switch and, lets say its the perfect system and gets everything right, says "oh  its Nintendo, I dont want to buy it".Please give me an actual reason other than that.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

naruball on 23 October 2016
Asedebck said:
naruball said:

Seems like a lot of people learned close to nothing from the previous generation and their failed predictions.

I keep hearing how wiiu wasn't well received. That couldn't be further from the truth. Reaction on vgc was extremely positive and there was post after post praising the concept and stating with absolute confidence that it would surpass the wii. That didn't happen and NS selling better than perhaps even ps4 is just crazytalk.

I still remember the threads claiming that it had won Japan before even coming out because it was getting a Monster Hunter game. We all know how that turned out.

Most people simply don't game outside their houses. Things have changed. The sooner people realise this, the better. But something tells me that even if it fails, there will be similar threads in like 5 years arguing that the next ninty console will sell x, because NS wasn't a good concept, it had a stupid name, or whatever. Mark my words.

wow your one of the only clever guys on this website! Ill come back in a year and laugh again. Like i already laughed at the people telling me 1 year ago the nx will have market leading ships, get full third party support and so much more

Make sure you do that. If you feel like it, bookmark the post to remember exactly what to laugh at.



naruball on 23 October 2016
thismeintiel said:
naruball said:

Seems like a lot of people learned close to nothing from the previous generation and their failed predictions.

I keep hearing how wiiu wasn't well received. That couldn't be further from the truth. Reaction on vgc was extremely positive and there was post after post praising the concept and stating with absolute confidence that it would surpass the wii. That didn't happen and NS selling better than perhaps even ps4 is just crazytalk.

I still remember the threads claiming that it had won Japan before even coming out because it was getting a Monster Hunter game. We all know how that turned out.

Most people simply don't game outside their houses. Things have changed. The sooner people realise this, the better. But something tells me that even if it fails, there will be similar threads in like 5 years arguing that the next ninty console will sell x, because NS wasn't a good concept, it had a stupid name, or whatever. Mark my words.

And I also remember several posts stating that since "the Wii U, the follow up to the Wii, was doing this poorly, imagine how poorly the PS4 and XBO are going to do." Basically saying console gaming was dead. Look how that turned out.

You're talking about a few posts that had nothing to do with reality and no logical foundation. If you want to know what I'm talking about read the wiiu sales prediction threads. Then read the predictions for xb1 and ps4.

The consensus was that wiiu would do extremely well and it failed. With ps4 it was that it would do well and it has so far.



Faelco on 23 October 2016
naruball said:
thismeintiel said:

And I also remember several posts stating that since "the Wii U, the follow up to the Wii, was doing this poorly, imagine how poorly the PS4 and XBO are going to do." Basically saying console gaming was dead. Look how that turned out.

You're talking about a few posts that had nothing to do with reality and no logical foundation. If you want to know what I'm talking about read the wiiu sales prediction threads. Then read the predictions for xb1 and ps4.

The consensus was that wiiu would do extremely well and it failed. With ps4 it was that it would do well and it has so far.

Everyone knew that the PS4 would do really well, even more because of the contrast with the Xbox failed announcement. It was obvious that the PS4 would take the Xbox 360 players. MS saved themselves a bit by canceling some of their previous decisions. 

 

I don't think I was active here at the time, but I remember arguing on other forums with crazy fans saying that the Wii U would do Wii numbers. It was just obvious for them that all the Wii buyers would jump on the Wii U. Kind of like some people now are counting the 3DS players as sure Switch buyers. Nothing points to it right now... 



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Asedebck on 23 October 2016
naruball said:

Make sure you do that. If you feel like it, bookmark the post to remember exactly what to laugh at.

I already bookmarked dozens of nx threads and now, as the nx was revealed i revved them. Got not a single resposne fro the guys calling me a dumb guy who did shit research and dont know what hes talking about. I already said 1 year ago that the NX will mist likely use arm technology and probl wont be much stronger then an current iphone or galaxy.



Lrdfancypants on 23 October 2016

I don't know how well it will sell but I'll say this, it looks like a premium product. I agree with the recent vgchat article. It looks very appealing. I think that's important. When I watched the trailer I noticed and even thought that looks really good. It doesn't look like a toy. 

I wish they'd do something out of the box like getting civ on there or some RTS games.  



l <---- Do you mean this glitch Gribble?  If not, I'll keep looking.  

 

 

 

 

I am on the other side of my sig....am I warm or cold?  

Marco....

Faelco on 23 October 2016
Lrdfancypants said:

I don't know how well it will sell but I'll say this, it looks like a premium product. I agree with the recent vgchat article. It looks very appealing. I think that's important. When I watched the trailer I noticed and even thought that looks really good. It doesn't look like a toy. 

I wish they'd do something out of the box like getting civ on there or some RTS games.  

And yet, when I asked my only friend who has a Wii U (my family and most of my friends having abandoned Nintendo's home consoles after the Wii disappointment) if he's interested in the Switch, he wasn't aware of the announcement yet. He looked at one picture of the console and immediately said (I quote his text) : "I saw a picture : no". 

I think that it looks pretty cheap (I find the grey plastic to be really toy-like), and one of the most common pictures of the console shows the huge and really ugly square controller in front of it. It's not really appealing like this... 

(left picture)



Lrdfancypants on 23 October 2016
Faelco said:
Lrdfancypants said:

I don't know how well it will sell but I'll say this, it looks like a premium product. I agree with the recent vgchat article. It looks very appealing. I think that's important. When I watched the trailer I noticed and even thought that looks really good. It doesn't look like a toy. 

I wish they'd do something out of the box like getting civ on there or some RTS games.  

And yet, when I asked my only friend who has a Wii U (my family and most of my friends having abandoned Nintendo's home consoles after the Wii disappointment) if he's interested in the Switch, he wasn't aware of the announcement yet. He looked at one picture of the console and immediately said (I quote his text) : "I saw a picture : no". 

I think that it looks pretty cheap (I find the grey plastic to be really toy-like), and one of the most common pictures of the console shows the huge and really ugly square controller in front of it. It's not really appealing like this... 

(left picture)

It doesn't look cheap to me. The controller looks terrible but they showed the other one and it looks fine.  



l <---- Do you mean this glitch Gribble?  If not, I'll keep looking.  

 

 

 

 

I am on the other side of my sig....am I warm or cold?  

Marco....

Faelco on 23 October 2016
Lrdfancypants said:
Faelco said:

And yet, when I asked my only friend who has a Wii U (my family and most of my friends having abandoned Nintendo's home consoles after the Wii disappointment) if he's interested in the Switch, he wasn't aware of the announcement yet. He looked at one picture of the console and immediately said (I quote his text) : "I saw a picture : no". 

I think that it looks pretty cheap (I find the grey plastic to be really toy-like), and one of the most common pictures of the console shows the huge and really ugly square controller in front of it. It's not really appealing like this... 

(left picture)

It doesn't look cheap to me. The controller looks terrible but they showed the other one and it looks fine.  

Different tastes ^^.

The other one looks fine, yes, but it won't be in or on the box...


EDIT : Big news, you can stop your prediction game and wait for more details:

 

 

EDIT 2 : Oh, not really new in fact, the tweet is already 2 days old and just got retweeted. The source is another tweet from one of Nintendo's investors, who deleted it.