What about MGS4?  What on earth does MGS4 have to do with Japan?  Just saying a few letters doesn't make it relevant.

It might be a repetition of the DS/PSP scenario...in which the DS dominates,but that doesn´t stop the PSP from being a relevant platform.

Source as always a wonderful read, but I have to think the PS3 is actually going to swing towards a worst case scenario. They are going to cede more momentum through the coarse of this year. Sony has a plethora of problems not all of which have truly manifested themselves in Japan. The situational effect is actually a delayed effect.

There are dozens of factors, but the first that will be noticed is the decline in software support. Nintendo had a golden year stripping support from Sony. Most of the library coming out for the machine now and in the near future is a result of speculation on the part of developers before the console launched. The problem now has to be developer desertion, or small developers developing a Nintendo loyalty.

Basically the better Nintendo does in Japan the worse Sony must do in regards to the next generation. Even worse for Sony the PS2 is actually a choke chain on the PS3. Games developed for the PS2 are so easily ported to the Wii, but Sony cannot stop production on the PS2 for fear that the Wii will simply take up the slack. Ironically Sony would have been better off killing the PS2 before they and Nintendo launched their new systems.

Then there is the dark horse player in the market making matters worse for Sony. Microsoft is the spoiler for Sony. They buy up exclusives that would otherwise go to the PS3. They drive up the prices for Sony in their negotiations. Those six hundred thousand 360 owners should have been PS3 owners. Microsoft is breaking the PS3s library. Microsoft has to know this, and will probably continue to do exactly what they are doing, and if it appears likely they can use it to shove the PS3 down to their sales level they would probably fork out the money to see that it happens. Some say Microsoft is dead, but for Sony they sure as hell are not dead enough. They are like Sony's version of flesh eating bacteria.

Sony has a lot of problems in Japan, and they are probably not going to get better in the long run, but probably worse. Nintendo will continue to draw the developer support away from Sony, and even a few late arriving titles are not going to swing the momentum in favor of Sony. More likely then not as Nintendo continues to pick up titles and launch first party efforts the pendulum will swing more strongly in their favor.

I am looking more at the Sony of last summer for guidance. Where Nintendo was outselling them by margins like eight to one or even nine to one. With the PS3 dancing dangerously close to 360 sales. This last week Nintendo outsold Sony by a margin of almost three and a half to one. The margin will probably inflate again this year. So even balanced out that would be five to one. Which means as Nintendo approaches the ten million mark Sony will be getting close to three million. Which would probably be late this year, or early next year as the trends are going.

I think the question isn't whether Sony can contend, or whether it is likely they will lose. I think the real question is whether the PS3 could become a bit player console in the market.

You meant to say microsoft is TRYING to break sonys game sells in japan. it has not and will not lol. nintendo is a monster on the other hand...........

Its a ps3 game that is selling out in japan.

@Dno: Actually Dodece is spot on. Sony is between a rock and a hard place in Japan. The Wii is crushing it in sales, and Microsoft uses money to buy up exclusives which might otherwise have been on the PS3.

@Dno

I would never have imagined you were psychic. Your sixth sense needs tweaking never the less. I said what I meant, and I meant what I said. Microsoft does damage even if it is mostly dead. You do not have to be a contender to trip up another competitor. Which is basically what Microsoft is doing to Sony in Japan. Every console they sell is a console that Sony does not sell, and every game they buy is another game that cannot help Sony with its library issues.

I suppose the best analogy would be to say that Nintendo and Sony are two heavyweight boxers in a ring slugging it out. Microsoft is a puny little kid running around with a broom handle who takes obscene pleasure in taking pot shots at Sony. Every time that Sony swats at the unruly brat. Nintendo gets to lay into Sony with some free shots. To the audience it may look harmless to the guy getting poked with the stick, but to the guy getting poked its a serious matter.

Basically what Microsoft does to Sony in Japan does hurt Sony. They don't have to go head to head with Sony. All they need to do is torment Sony from behind enough to give Nintendo more of an advantage then it would normally have.

erm..yeh where to begin...first games are not the only thing that sell consoles...innovation/pricepoint/format/techtrends/cultural shift etc these can all be factors.
secondly comparing company products from different generations can be dangerous from a critical standpoint. Sony lost betamax but won bluray. I read an analysis that made a few good points on that case that may be relevent here. sony has playstation now. that drove bluray sales. sony is also a holllywood studio behemoth. That helped. and sony had two (what he called) 'super brands', vaio and bravia. in consumer minds that is quality. and this is quality that is selling very very well. so much in fact that it's actually meaning that sony is still making raking in a profit.
basically sony is not sega or nintendo, if it completely fails with ps3, its other brands will carry it through. we will definitely see ps4. developers know that. however developers (those who love franchises) love a steady longlasting platform. those reasons are selfexplanatory...but I suppose I can explain if I have to.
for want of better words, 'it (the ps3) can't trully fail'.

its sold two million already, and with what exactly? motorstorm? a brand new half finished nonpnese, non jprg, title? and promises that are far far away...want to know what made the ps1 reach 2 milion? the ps2 reach 2 million?

now we have to ask, can it succeed. Firstly, (again credit must go to another user somewhere out there) a fanboy once made this point: personally I don't care for the reasons for people thinking the ps3 is struggling because of the ps2. it simply ain't, it's actually helping the ps3 stay afloat. when I asked him/her why? he/she said, there is something sony cares more about then customer sales and that is it's stockholders. and stockholders are given the 'playstation brand figures'. So basically without psp/ps2...ps3 is...well ps2's fighting the battle for ps3. and i think I agree.
next comes the wii. what a lot of people (including me) have thus failed to realise is that it's skipped to the last stage of any technological product. it's skipped intial reception at high price point, isn't developing a brand, instead going mass market right out of the bat. The ps3 like a lot of succesful mass market brands is going through the cycle. The apple ipod, playstation 1,2...cd's, dvds, computers, intel/amd/nividia products, even the DS.
ps2 is still churning out multi-platinum titles by the way (pes/winning eleven).
talking about the ps2, the wii is acheving what the ps2 did in its hay day, but the wii being out only a year mean both good and bad things. good because it looks good on paper, puts money in the bank, sells unprecedented amounts of software and provides a solid foundation for the future (wii2 if they decide to keep the brand name).
bad, (and this is important), shareholders will want improvement, year on year, third party will want the same platform year on year, and you've already targeting the mass audience...I don't know when critical mass will hit, but every mass market product ever sold eventually hits that point... and now we arrive to what every industry analyst who wants to shoot himself in the foot has said: has the nintendo wii sacrificed long term markets for short to mid-term gratification. Yes the nintendo absolutely needed it, rather like AMD does now, but in that case what happens come quarter end 2009. Sony will still have two behemoths GT and FF13 on their cards. and please don't forget the monsterous possiblity of little big planet going into chrismas. We simply don't know what is going to define this generation.
and if anyone is still awake untill now...i have to get this off my chest...will japan ever love FPS? if jpn can be seduced that way...mgs online/socomm/killzone/*resistant2*...if sony manage that they will win jpn for sure. but nonetheless...sony is getting konami to spend huge amounts of money with its biggest stable brand (mgs), its also getting square enix to spend huge bucks on their blockbuster title exclusively on the ps3. japanese consumers won't forget that. Sony is running into blockbuster games whilst nintendo is runnning out of them...

peace... 

when microsoft has all japans support or most of it more then sony then come back to me.... better yet when 360 starts selling more then ps3 come back. better yet when 360 hits 1 million in japan come back...then come back again when it hits 2 million. thats when sony will be worried about 360 in japan... right now they are not its all about nintendo.

 Im not arguing weather it hurts them or not im saying it doesnt really matter to sony so yes they hurt them a little but sony hurt them a LOT more so it doesnt really matter in japan.

O yea it doesnt take a "psychic" to see what ever you said was crap. Sony is getting hurt in USA and mab "others" by 360 but not in japan.......

But sony still has more jp support then microsoft ever will. Microsoft can not fund every game and jp devs need to make money and no one has broke even in japan on the 360.

they will make games for wii DS psp and ps3 thats really it.

It takes real 360 fanboys to really think the 360 is hurting sony in japan........ LMAO