You all know about this game by id Software that was in development hell for many years (first announced in 2008), struggling with different visions until 2011 when they scrapped everything and decided for a retro look, which was met with great enthusiasm when it was shown at E3 2015. People seem to like that it decided to go for an unpretentious, straight on, badass, classic style, with lots of gore and heavily relying on accurate and responsive controls, satisfying gunplay and a much faster pace than most modern shooters.
So how do you think it will sell? The release date is May 13, 2016 on PS4, XBONE and PC. With so many years of development (9-10 years, although probably on-hold at times) and assuming a 100 head strong development team, the total costs must be well over $60 million, with marketing at least $80 million.
Somewhat comparable games, such as Wolfenstein from 2014 sold 3.0 million between 4 console platforms not including digital, and 1.15 mill on PC according to Steam spy. Crysis 3 (2013) sold 1.8 million on PS360 and 630k on PC (according to VGC), KillZone Shadowfall 2.5 mill (2013) on PS4, Battlefield Hardline 3.8 mill on 4 console platforms, and Rainbow Six: Siege (December 2015) is estimated to sell ~4 million on XOne and PS4 and perhaps 1 million on PC.
My prediction:
PS4: 1.3 mill (300K first week)
XOne: 800K (180K first week)
PC: over 1.5 million eventually, many of them on Steam sales though, at $10 or less. For that to happen first year sales should be around half of that, +750K, first week must be +250K and peak concurrent players on Steam nearly 100K.
What would this mean for revenue? $25 per copy x 2.1 million on console, and $15 x 1.5 mill on PC = $75 million. Not profitable, but pretty close.
Perdiiiiiiict!
