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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will 3DS outsell PS2 lifetime in Japan?

 

Do you think that 3DS will become the third best selling console in Japan?

Yes, it will. 18 64.29%
 
Nah, i don't think. 10 35.71%
 
Total:28
Frogger on 27 March 2015

Doubt it.



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tbone51 on 27 March 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
tbone51 said:
Look at it like this, the 3ds is currently at 18.42mil lifetime. This year (5th year) its at 590k given strong 1st quarter with the n3ds help.

Ok now lets look at it at the absolute worst case scenario for it.
~No N3DS Exclusive
~No Major Games left (lets say no YW3/Pokemon XY2/etc)
~2016 3DS successor comes out Q1.

I say it'll be
2015: 1.6mil
2016: 500k
2017: 200k

Minimum lifetime= 20.2mil+

Now a more realistic look, with some good support and a Q4 2016 successor release...

2015: 2.3mil
2016: 1.2mil
2017: 500k
2018: 150k

About 21.7mil

I dunno know, it might be a bit less imo. It has a chance but i think its safe to say 3DS atm will be between 21mil-22mil lifetime

There is a error in this numbers.

18,000,000 by end of 2014 + 2,300,000 = 20,300,000 + other 1,200,000 = 21,500,000 + other 500,000 = 22,000,000 + other 150,000 = 22,150,000.

How you have 21,700,000?


Technically its around 17.8mil by end of 2014. That said yeah i made an error in the math my bad.

Now that im corrected, i'll say 21mil-23mil. Definetly possible. It all depends on this year, if its under 2mil it wont beat ps2, but i think 2.3mil is a safe bet. Given how its 600k within Q1, with 300k-400k in Q2 and again in Q3 with Q4 doing about 1mil



Ultrashroomz on 27 March 2015

Possibly.

However, I'm slightly leaning towards no.

No real reason, just a hunch.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

Maraccuda on 27 March 2015

Hm, another 5 mill in Japan alone?

Id say no by a slim margin.



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