So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.

In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over  100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.

For the XONE I won't be making detailed predictions because MS is behaving erratically so I don't know what could happen with the console, for example such aggressive price-cuts could move forward a ton of sales and help them gain back the mindshare in the US/UK but on the other hand it could kill public perception mid-longterm; also are they completely giving up outside US/UK; how many 1st Party developers could they form on time to help this gen; how many, how big and how difficult is for them to obtain 3rd Party exclusives, etc.

Anyways, I think the XONE should be around 50M-70M LTD.

it'll outsell the ps2

I doubt it'll sell that much. I'm expecting this to be a six year generation so there's a good chance it could reach 100 million by the end of its life, but 140 just doesn't seem possible.

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be 11M (it was 11M).

think it will barely make it past 100M with 100-110M

gaming aint as popular as it was during late 90s and early 2000s, i believe we'll get new HW sooner this gen and console gaming aint what it used to be in the west so stop comparing it to ps1 and 2s trends its gonna be tough for ps4 to get 20M+ ytd numbers let alone past 120M LT as seen predicted by many on here

What do you mean by a six year generation?

That's a pretty standard gen anyways, last one was 7 years. Consoles don't stop selling after a new gen arrives, PS4 should sell between 90-110M before next-gen, the rest after it launches. That's why I meant with this:

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

I say sure why not, price cuts will come easy.

World gaming has grown, china is a interesting prospect. Vr.

So you expect it to sell close to PS2 levels, even though not even the Wii did that?

I see people repeating this over and over, I've never seen any evidence that supports it though.

ps1 and 2 were also priced for 149 and less for a meaningful duration of its life, ps4 will not be priced below 199 thats another reason why it will not get past 120M and why the 360 and ps3 didnt make past 100M yet

That one's way more probable than the 140M prediction above. I still think even that one is aiming a bit high though, but mostly because I doubt on the longevity of the PS4, so the sales will probably degrade a bit sooner and more sharply. That's why I put the console on the 80 - 90 Millions Range saleswise, which is still very good.