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Prediction: Wii U peak>GC peak

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Wii U peak>GameCube peak?

Yes, 11 games next year= high sales 124 57.94%
 
No, Wii U(nderperformer) 90 42.06%
 
Total:214
haqqaton said:
Angelv577 said:
Hard to believe when the 2 best system sellers are already out and didn't do much for the system. If I were you, I would have lower my expectations.

Are you saying that MK8 didn't do much for the system?!


No it didn't really do much, it appears like it did but the fact that it released in a time that had a drought last year made the YoY boost seem bigger than it really was. If Wii U had a somewhat major game+bundle release in May/June 2013 then we would have likely seen a modest YoY boost like we have seen the rest of the year.

In the US Wii U is up YoY by about 270k thru November while Japan is down about 100k YoY in the same time frame. If VGC numbers are correct then Europe is up by a similar amount as the US. Worldwide Wii U is up by about 500k YoY in the first 11 months, percentage wise that's pretty decent but in terms of actual numbers that's not really huge considering this year had Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta 2, Smash Bros, Captain Toad.



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Like I have pointed out a few times now, this year only saw a noticable bump during May-July in which Nintendo not only released Mario Kart but released it during a time that was facing a drought in the prior year. Mario Kart gave us all the false assumption that Smash Bros would give a similar boost but since Smash released during a time that did have a big game the prior year (Mario 3D World) the boost was minimal.

Next year doesn't have the big hitters that this year had outside of Zelda. Games like Kirby/Yoshi won't be huge and with Wii U having a plethora of platformers already they like won't cause very big boosts. They are similar to Tropical Freeze or Captain Toad as far as system sellers go. Devil's Third will perform poorly, similar to Bayonetta. Star Fox has been gone for a decade and been close to 2 decades since a really good traditional entry released. I just can't see a $50-60 rail shooter being a big console mover. Xenoblade is pretty niche, the last entry sold under 1 million on an install base of 100 million, this game looks great but won't sell extremely well. Mario Party will probably sell decently but with a bunch of party games and Mario games on the system, the fanbase is already on Wii U. Mario Maker/Splatoon have potential and would have done excellent on Wii in its prime but they are probably hindered sales wise simply by being on Wii U, they will sell well but won't cause massive boosts. Zelda is the only game currently announced for next year which is a guaranteed big seller (3 million or more) but with Wind Waker HD & Hyrule Warriors already available it's likely that a good chuck of the fanbase is already on Wii U.

Having a more consistant release schedule and a $50 price cut will merely stop the decline from being so big. I imagine Wii U will be down 10-20% YoY so about 3-3.5 million sold in 2015.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

GameCube had terrible legs with the only years over 5 million was fiscal year 2003 and fiscal year 2004. The Wii U might not make it as high in the 2015 fiscal year but in the 2016 fiscal year it will.

GameCube vs Wii U sales by fiscal year

2002- 3.80m vs 2013- 3.45m
2003- 5.76m vs 2014- 2.72m
2004- 5.02m vs 2015- Prediction= 4.82m
2005- 3.92m vs 2016- Prediction= 6.34m
2006- 2.35m vs 2017- Prediction= 4.05m
2007- 0.73m vs 2018- Prediction= 2.89m
2008- 0.16m vs 2019- Prediction= 0.85m
2020- Prediction= 0.22m
Total- 21.74m vs 25.34m

Yes I think Wii U will last until 2020 and sell at least 25 million



i'm not an expert but correct me if i'm wrong the Wii U is barely over 7M lifetime. I can't see it getting near that number ofr a single year. MK8 provided a much bigger boost then smash. I don't think Zelda will give a boost any bigger than smash and while some potentially great titles coming they are all too niche to move systems in meaningful numbers. If Ninty keep going for profit over sales not a chance. The pad controller is really dragging it down in terms of price. And it needs to be dirt cheap to sell right now. The X1 won't be long passing it out in price and the PS4 isn't far behind the X1.



No, this year will likely be the Wii U's peak year. However, the deluge of titles next year probably will help it not tank nearly as hard as GC did. I'd say another 3.5-4M is possible in 2015.



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    gcube2000 said:
    GameCube had terrible legs with the only years over 5 million was fiscal year 2003 and fiscal year 2004. The Wii U might not make it as high in the 2015 fiscal year but in the 2016 fiscal year it will.

    GameCube vs Wii U sales by fiscal year

    2002- 3.80m vs 2013- 3.45m
    2003- 5.76m vs 2014- 2.72m
    2004- 5.02m vs 2015- Prediction= 4.82m
    2005- 3.92m vs 2016- Prediction= 6.34m
    2006- 2.35m vs 2017- Prediction= 4.05m
    2007- 0.73m vs 2018- Prediction= 2.89m
    2008- 0.16m vs 2019- Prediction= 0.85m
    2020- Prediction= 0.22m
    Total- 21.74m vs 25.34m

    Yes I think Wii U will last until 2020 and sell at least 25 million

    2.72 this year? I think it will be around 3.7m by the end of 2014. An I´m not sure but didn´t WiiU sold 3.2 at 2013? it´s almost the same anyway.



    spurgeonryan said:
    If it does then it will easily outsell the cube by close to 10 million by the end.

    Wii U is currently ~5 million behind launch aligned.  Why do you think it will easily outsell it in the end?



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    Unfortunately, I don't see the Wii U nearly doubling this year's sales next year. It doesn't have enough to warrant such an incredible jump in sales, especially when its two biggest games came out this year.



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    Goodnightmoon said:
    gcube2000 said:
    GameCube had terrible legs with the only years over 5 million was fiscal year 2003 and fiscal year 2004. The Wii U might not make it as high in the 2015 fiscal year but in the 2016 fiscal year it will.

    GameCube vs Wii U sales by fiscal year

    2002- 3.80m vs 2013- 3.45m
    2003- 5.76m vs 2014- 2.72m
    2004- 5.02m vs 2015- Prediction= 4.82m
    2005- 3.92m vs 2016- Prediction= 6.34m
    2006- 2.35m vs 2017- Prediction= 4.05m
    2007- 0.73m vs 2018- Prediction= 2.89m
    2008- 0.16m vs 2019- Prediction= 0.85m
    2020- Prediction= 0.22m
    Total- 21.74m vs 25.34m

    Yes I think Wii U will last until 2020 and sell at least 25 million

    2.72 this year? I think it will be around 3.7m by the end of 2014. An I´m not sure but didn´t WiiU sold 3.2 at 2013? it´s almost the same anyway.

    He's talking about fiscal year shipments. 

    Though I'm not really sure how he is predicting 4.82m for this year.  If we give around 600k for Q4, that would mean it needs 3.1m for Q3 to hit his 4.82m.  3.1m is up nearly 60% YoY.  So far Japan is down by 90k and showing no sign of being up YoY.  The US is up about 30k.  So unless trends change in December it is looking like the average between Japan and the US will be roughly flat.  Japan and the Americas were over three fourths of shipments last year in Q3.  That means in order to hit 3.1m Europe/Others will need to be up 230%.  That also means Others will need to be more than the Americas and Japan combined.  That would be a pretty huge difference from the historical trends.



    Goodnightmoon said:
    gcube2000 said:
    GameCube had terrible legs with the only years over 5 million was fiscal year 2003 and fiscal year 2004. The Wii U might not make it as high in the 2015 fiscal year but in the 2016 fiscal year it will.

    GameCube vs Wii U sales by fiscal year

    2002- 3.80m vs 2013- 3.45m
    2003- 5.76m vs 2014- 2.72m
    2004- 5.02m vs 2015- Prediction= 4.82m
    2005- 3.92m vs 2016- Prediction= 6.34m
    2006- 2.35m vs 2017- Prediction= 4.05m
    2007- 0.73m vs 2018- Prediction= 2.89m
    2008- 0.16m vs 2019- Prediction= 0.85m
    2020- Prediction= 0.22m
    Total- 21.74m vs 25.34m

    Yes I think Wii U will last until 2020 and sell at least 25 million

    2.72 this year? I think it will be around 3.7m by the end of 2014. An I´m not sure but didn´t WiiU sold 3.2 at 2013? it´s almost the same anyway.

    No.. 2014 fiscal year. Not 2014... We're in the 2015 fiscal year right now