Statistic says no, because Wii was a holiday beast, while Playstation consoles (2,3 and 4 will probably, too) not so much.

Btw. do u talk about sell in, or sold through? Second one is highly unlikely. First one is possible
Sony shipped 9m Ps4 during the first three quarters of 2014
Historically Sony shipps about ~45% of the full year inventory in the holiday quarter. That would result in about 7.35m consoles

So 13.5m +7 - 7.5m = 20.5 - 21m Ps4 shipped end of 2014.
Sold through of that shipped number will be ~1 1/2 - 2 month later

He is actually saying six and half million in six weeks and it's worth noting that the competition is currently having very little impact on the PS4, especially the WiiU. Additionally, it doesn't matter what games are being released on the other consoles because the Xbox has very little presence outside of the USA/UK and Halo isn't going to change that. That being said, I think that 21 million by year's end is a bit of a stretch, I personally expect the PS4 to reach approximately 20 million but I have been wrong before.

I'm happy more people is recognizing the patterns rightly for ps4....about time!

I already said something similar back in October, even going to March Fiscal year.

colafitte on 31 October 2014

- PS4 13'5 m shipped - Wii 13'17 m shipped during their first 4 quarters.

- Wii shipped 6'97m during its 5th quarter (2007 holiday season), and 4'31m during the 6th quarter (Jan-Mar 2008). Total shipments for Wii before April 2008 were 24'45 m.

- PS4 probably sold around 12'5m units before October, from that 13'5m shipment units. Add around 750k-1m for October, so right now around 13'2-13'5m sold to consumers before November. I'm expecting around 3m PS4 sold in Nov and around 4m sold in Dec, so basically I expect 7m during Nov-Dec. In the end I expect around 20'5 m sold to consumers before 2015. To reach that they have to at least ship 21'0-21'5 m.

- Considering all the games that are coming 1st half of 2015, another 3-4m units sold until April is almost a guarantee, so they need to ship around 4-5m more. In the end I see around 25-26m units shipped before April 2015 for PS4.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6794916

So, I agree with OP in this.

no.

21 millions is just too much, 19 million (perhaps 20 million max) is a more realistic number.


edit: your numbers make sense, but i think that X1 will bite a fair share of PS4 sales in USA, so i don't think Ps4 will make "wii" numbers. Ps4 will have a huge bust, but 21 million is just too much! still possible, but i think that this number is just too much.

PS4 is selling like a monster, but I don't think it will sell more than 18/18.5M, which is already amazing.
But I could be wrong, and PS4 will pull out over 19M, who knows. We will see.

Well this is if we assume vgc numbers are correct. In which they most likely arent

He's comparing it with the Wii, which was MUCH cheaper than the competition and had a killer game (Twilight Princess) out at the time.

Yeah, no, this is a bad comparison. The PS4 is $50 more expensive than a One bundled with free games and much more expensive than a Wii U, and has no real killer exclusive out right now, while the Wii U has Smash and the One has MCC. 

I doubt the PS4 reaches anywhere close to 21 million. Maybe 18-19 at most, but not 21.

If we want 20.5m sold through consoles, u have to ship at least 22m or more. (If u dont wan't shortages and don't want to use costy shipments by plane like last year for Sony)
The higher your weekly sales, the higher ur stock has to be.
Stores need 1 - 2 weeks of sales on theire shelfs alone
Wholesaler and distributor need x week of sales in the warehouse until the next shipment form oversea arrive
You need between 2 - 6 weeks to get ur shipments form prodution to destination.

You need about 1 1/2 month of sales on shelfs, at the wharehouse and in transit.


If u don't belive me here are the last year Sony figures:
4.5m shipped Ps4 end of December 2014, while 4.2m sold through.
The weekly sales baseline was way lower that days, than this year.
The Ps4 was only available in 3x markets compared to over 100 this holiday season
The Ps4 was completley sold out in nearly every region
Sony used plane to get the shipments faster to destination

21 million I think is a touch high. A few months back i said between 17.5 and 18.5 but I think looking at it now that might be a little low. 18.5-19 million is my guess for the end of 2014