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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sorry, Bayonetta 2 will not be a system seller (nor sell more than 1 million).

 

Global lifetime sales for Bayonetta 2 will be:

Less than 500k 124 17.06%
 
500k to 1 million 333 45.80%
 
More than 1 million 270 37.14%
 
Total:727
oniyide on 27 September 2014
JustBeingReal said:
oniyide said:
JustBeingReal said:
The way I see it this game has every chance of selling over a million copies lifetime, mainly because the 1st game sold over 2 million across PS3, 360 and it was very well liked by that install base, so there's already more than a million people that may like the franchise and want a sequel.
Many people (like me) do own both of those consoles, would like to play this and don't have the factor of the 1st game not being available on Wii U holding us back from buying a Wii U to play this game (plus Wii U isn't exactly expensive), so one game doesn't have to be a system seller when you've got two in a single package for a reasonable price.

The potential install base for this game could very well be higher than 2 million because more people than those that already played the 1st game could buy it.

Wii U seems to be gaining a good line-up of titles, that when you look at the breadth of exclusives is actually starting to make it seem like a good console to complement other platforms, at least as far as I'm concerned.

yeah it sold that much after it hit bargain bins. And it was released on TWO consoles that both have sold 80mil+ each. Even discounting MP owners that has to be a combined install of 100mil. so 2 mil sold is nothing to be proud of and lets be real here Wii U isnt going to get anyhwhere near the install base of either PS3 or xbox360


It doesn't really matter in the context of this debate what price the game sold for on PS3 and 360 (TBH the majority of most game sales, even the highest scoring titles likely had huge sales at bargain prices compared to launch price). The point was that the series has that install base. If the game's good enough or people loved the 1st one enough then they'll likely want the sequel. Wii U doesn't have to sell over 100 million units of hardware to eventually sell 2 million copies of this game or even a little over a million, it just has to be a good enough game to interest it's target audience and gain enough marketing to let those people know it exists.

Yeah it kinda does. If it takes the game the entire life cycle of Wii U just to get to 1mil is that really something to be proud of? I gaurantee that the publisher isnt going to be happy with that. THey rather sell as much as the game as they can as close to full price as possible. The series doesnt have the install base. Install base refers to consoles not games and thats something that is really not in the game's favor being exclusive on Wii U. You're assuming that everyone who bought Bayo 1 is going to get a Wii U for the game. Or you're assuming those same people already have Wii U. I can confirm that this isnt true.



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oniyide on 27 September 2014
czecherychestnut said:
I still haven't heard a convincing argument why despite Bayo1 selling 2 million on PS360 and this being insufficient to justify a sequel, why selling 1 million on Wii U (if it even gets that far) will be a 'success' for Nintendo. I mean I know Platinum doesn't care because they've already been paid, but Nintendo will want to make that money back.

We're only guessing the breakdown of costs for developing and publishing a game. But Sega had the numbers, knew exactly what Bayo1 cost to make and revenue it generated, and decided not to proceed with its sequel. That should tell you that unless Bayo2 is significantly cheaper than Bayo1 to make (despite being from reviews a larger, more fleshed out game), then 1 million sales isn't going to be enough to cover the cost of Bayo2 AND the port of Bayo1.

Sure, its on one console instead of two, but developing the game engine is only a small part of the total game development, the creation of all the graphic and sound assets, level design,voice acting, etc, are shared across platforms. Developing a game for one console is unlikely to be significantly cheaper than developing for two or more. Actually, with the port of Bayo1, effectively it has cost them the same as releasing on multiple platforms, because they've had to rewrite Bayo1 for the Wii U, making 1 million sales even less likely to generate a profit for Nintendo than before.

lets not forget that a good chunk of those 1 mil sales probably wont be at full price. So they make even less money as time goes on.



A203D on 27 September 2014

There is only about 7.2 mil Wii U units out there. I very much doubt it will sell 1 mil copies. Hopefully its only a timed exclusive though, it would be a shame to have a gem such as this confined to one console with a userbase of 7.2 mil.



Skidmore on 27 September 2014

Considering how Killzone, Ryse, Infamous performed... 1 million for Bayo2 this year would be huge for the Wii U... The first Third party to achieve that...

It's unlikely, but who knows how the fan base will react....

Bayonetta 2 is easy the ultimate Third Party test in the Wii U, a triple A game, exclusive, and very well received... If it does not sell, Wii U doesn't deserve support.





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Devil_Survivor on 27 September 2014
Mystro-Sama said:
You realise that having this game exclusive to the Wii U generated more attention and exposure than the first game got?

I would think that was in Nintendo's mind when decided to fund this game in the first place ;). It seemed to have worked out nicely hasn't it judgeing by this thread lol.



 

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flagstaad on 27 September 2014
czecherychestnut said:
I still haven't heard a convincing argument why despite Bayo1 selling 2 million on PS360 and this being insufficient to justify a sequel, why selling 1 million on Wii U (if it even gets that far) will be a 'success' for Nintendo. I mean I know Platinum doesn't care because they've already been paid, but Nintendo will want to make that money back.

We're only guessing the breakdown of costs for developing and publishing a game. But Sega had the numbers, knew exactly what Bayo1 cost to make and revenue it generated, and decided not to proceed with its sequel. That should tell you that unless Bayo2 is significantly cheaper than Bayo1 to make (despite being from reviews a larger, more fleshed out game), then 1 million sales isn't going to be enough to cover the cost of Bayo2 AND the port of Bayo1.

Sure, its on one console instead of two, but developing the game engine is only a small part of the total game development, the creation of all the graphic and sound assets, level design,voice acting, etc, are shared across platforms. Developing a game for one console is unlikely to be significantly cheaper than developing for two or more. Actually, with the port of Bayo1, effectively it has cost them the same as releasing on multiple platforms, because they've had to rewrite Bayo1 for the Wii U, making 1 million sales even less likely to generate a profit for Nintendo than before.

The keyword is profits... You assuming that 2 million units sold was not enough to justify a sequel for Sega because they want to make as much profit for the game as they can, but for Nintendo they are not just concerned about profit, they also want to increase the appeal of the console, it is possible that with 1 million units they don't make a profit, but if they recover the cost of the game, it should be enough.

There are 2 more things to take into account, when a 3rd party publishes something on the console they have to pay royalties to the console owner, those go as high as 12 U$ per copy of the game, but are usually more on the line of 9 U$, those Nintendo does not have to pay to themselves, so they make more money out of each copy, the other thing is development tool, every third party developer pays for their kits, but again Nintendo does not pays itself for those (this is not a big amount any way, but it does count).

So the game is a little cheaper to make, they make more money out of each copy and the goal is not to profit from it but to recover costs and increase the perceived value of the console, taking those into account 1 million copies sold could be a success for Nintendo, not a profit success, but a success any way.



JustBeingReal on 27 September 2014
oniyide said:
JustBeingReal said:
oniyide said:
JustBeingReal said:
The way I see it this game has every chance of selling over a million copies lifetime, mainly because the 1st game sold over 2 million across PS3, 360 and it was very well liked by that install base, so there's already more than a million people that may like the franchise and want a sequel.
Many people (like me) do own both of those consoles, would like to play this and don't have the factor of the 1st game not being available on Wii U holding us back from buying a Wii U to play this game (plus Wii U isn't exactly expensive), so one game doesn't have to be a system seller when you've got two in a single package for a reasonable price.

The potential install base for this game could very well be higher than 2 million because more people than those that already played the 1st game could buy it.

Wii U seems to be gaining a good line-up of titles, that when you look at the breadth of exclusives is actually starting to make it seem like a good console to complement other platforms, at least as far as I'm concerned.

yeah it sold that much after it hit bargain bins. And it was released on TWO consoles that both have sold 80mil+ each. Even discounting MP owners that has to be a combined install of 100mil. so 2 mil sold is nothing to be proud of and lets be real here Wii U isnt going to get anyhwhere near the install base of either PS3 or xbox360


It doesn't really matter in the context of this debate what price the game sold for on PS3 and 360 (TBH the majority of most game sales, even the highest scoring titles likely had huge sales at bargain prices compared to launch price). The point was that the series has that install base. If the game's good enough or people loved the 1st one enough then they'll likely want the sequel. Wii U doesn't have to sell over 100 million units of hardware to eventually sell 2 million copies of this game or even a little over a million, it just has to be a good enough game to interest it's target audience and gain enough marketing to let those people know it exists.

Yeah it kinda does. If it takes the game the entire life cycle of Wii U just to get to 1mil is that really something to be proud of? I gaurantee that the publisher isnt going to be happy with that. THey rather sell as much as the game as they can as close to full price as possible. The series doesnt have the install base. Install base refers to consoles not games and thats something that is really not in the game's favor being exclusive on Wii U. You're assuming that everyone who bought Bayo 1 is going to get a Wii U for the game. Or you're assuming those same people already have Wii U. I can confirm that this isnt true.

This thread is about sales, not game earnings, earnings are actually pretty irrelevant to this debate. I never argued against developers and publishers wanting to make as much money as possible, quickly.

This is a franchise, franchises can absolutely have an install base (it's a more complicated way of saying "audience"), just because people usually use the term "install base" to refer to a platform doesn't change the point that it's not limited to that one thing. The existing install base of this game, those true fans of the series will be interested in buying a Wii U if they liked the game enough, it's marketed well enough and importantly the game turns out to be as appealing as the 1st one to fan's.

I am not assuming everyone that bought the prequel to B2 will buy a Wii U for this game, if you'd read my post properly you'd see that I actually covered a variety of different scenarios that could create sales. Existing audience for the series isn't the sum total of all potential sales. If you take those existing 2 million gamers that bought the 1st game, some more that didn't, but always wanted to play it, include some people that are yet to buy a Wii U or maybe already own one, but want more too play, then the potential audience would actually be higher than the amount of people that bought the 1st Bayonetta, not that I expect they'll all buy this game, but that doesn't stop there being that potential for sales.

 

Anyway I think the game will sell more than a million units, that's my opinion, you haven't changed it, time to move on.



TheWPCTraveler on 27 September 2014
gatito said:
NickK said:
LOL people have gone crazy about Bayo2! I cannot understand why some fans are soooo negative when there is gonna be a game with lots of potential. I mea, hey! Even ZombiU has sold 1 million (retail and eshop). It is very possible Bayo2 to sell even more than 1 million.


Exactly and it was a new IP, had crappy graphics and got mixed to bad reviews.

ZombiU was a launch title that came with a bundle.



 
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bevochan on 13 October 2014

Bayonetta 2 is getting great reviews, but my prediction ain't changin'. It won't sell more than 1 million.




flagstaad on 13 October 2014
bevochan said:
Bayonetta 2 is getting great reviews, but my prediction ain't changin'. It won't sell more than 1 million.

I hate you because you are most likely right, and the game deserves better. At least a few of my friends are now considering buying the game after the excellent reviews, maybe that improves the sale a little bit.