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Locked: When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

Baalzamon said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Why the hell should Sony send ioi additional information. It's OVER 10 million. That's all we need to know.

Because contrary to what other people likely think, I'd wager Sony is getting their weekly sales information from VgChartz as one of their sources (There is a huge difference between VgChartz reporting sales weekly and Sony knowing what they shipped weekly). This weekly information ensures that production levels are adequate, etc. So it is really in Sony's best interest that VgChartz be accurate.


Sony does use vgchartz data, or at least at one point they have according to the ad for vgchartz pro and as you say it would be in their best interest to give the site enough information so that its data can be as accurate as possible.  However, given this places track record of late it seems apparent that their methodology has become outmoded.  A margin of error is of course to be expected but the fluctuations in the past months have been severe, to put it midly.  Right now it is in vgchartz best interest to update their process or companies like sony may cease using their services in kind, and that is of course a difficult process that will not change overnight.  However, vgchartz doesn't look so good right now and it hasn't for a while now.

 

To expand, I trust sony, as I would nintendo or microsoft, insofar as a broad estimate is concerned.  They know how many units they have produced, they know how many they have shipped and they know how many orders that they have received; add on top of that the sales data they have access to from npd, meaa, tsutaya and indeed vgchartz itself among others to help analyze the trends and I believe that information sufficient to extrapolate a rough estimate, given with a significantly larger margin for error.  In fact it is in that vein as to why I am inclined to believe them even more.  Given the potential margin for error for them to word the statement explicitly that it is over 10 million sold through it would be imprudent of them to say such if the margin of error could even possibly leave the number slightly under that, let alone substantially as the current number vgchartz is quoting would suggest.  Now could sony still be incorrect, or worse, dishonest about these number?  Of course it is possible, but I feel it is highly unlikely at this juncture..

 

Now that said, I want to say that the staff having not shut this thread down or heavily moderated its content (at least so far as I have seen, I have not monitored this thread much I admit), and that ioi himself has been open to the criticism, respectful in his replies to the concerns of the community and transparent thus far in his efforts to ameliorate the problem at hand is commendable and I hope it continues.



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ethomaz said:
Germany

0.60m seems right but it shows 0.54m for me as of Ago 2 that is undertracked.

 Spain / Portugal

Undertracked because Spain alone did 275k as of Jun 12 and Portugal did 21k in 2013... so I'm sure they did more than 30k from June 12 today for Spain and full 2014 for Portugal.

Nordic

They sold 55k in 2013... I believe they sold more than 100k in 2014 too.... you need remember that in 2013 there countries had little to no stock avaiable to sell.

France

0.55m is close to 40k more than what is showed on VGC... that is what I'm talking about... PS4 is sold in 100 countries if you have undertracked 10k in half of them then you have already 500k diff.

BTW it sold 240k in 2013 with suply issues... I'm have a hard time to think it sold just the same amount in 2014 with normal supply... Germany sold 540k  as of Jun 28, 2014 but Germany have yet supply issues with PS4 today.

You need to be able to account for about 560k. Total so far is maybe 130k. Considering that the US number from NPD is 3.76 million to end of July, and VGChartz had it at 3.87 million, that's 110k overtrack, so between them, you're up just 20k. You still need to explain 540k.



BeElite said:
Baalzamon said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Why the hell should Sony send ioi additional information. It's OVER 10 million. That's all we need to know.

Because contrary to what other people likely think, I'd wager Sony is getting their weekly sales information from VgChartz as one of their sources (There is a huge difference between VgChartz reporting sales weekly and Sony knowing what they shipped weekly). This weekly information ensures that production levels are adequate, etc. So it is really in Sony's best interest that VgChartz be accurate.


Yes im sure they are losing sleep over vgs undertracking.  Some of you need to get real, how the hell do you even come up with such delusion of grandeur.  


I thought he was joking LMAO



Aielyn said:

You need to be able to account for about 560k. Total so far is maybe 130k. Considering that the US number from NPD is 3.76 million to end of July, and VGChartz had it at 3.87 million, that's 110k overtrack, so between them, you're up just 20k. You still need to explain 540k.

He claims to be accurate with the trackers in Europe... he is not... and there are a lot of others countries than these four I listed... a better example:

Germany and France are undertracked right now ~40k... that is ~7% of the sales in these places... so apply the same for Europe:

3.45m + 7% = 3.7m

That just talking about Europe... and that means small countries are only 5-10k undertracked... you already have 250k under just in VGC Europe (that is not all Europe).

Now think about PS4 in over 100 countries right now... some will be overtracked like US but mostly countries that VGC don't have any data could be ~5% undertracked like Germany/France or others countries I showed... you will get the 600k under fast.

VGC is wrong and need to be fix.

The data showed today make the discussing about sales in the forum pointless because you knows PS4 numbers are not accurate... the view outside the forum is even worst.

That what makes VGC have a bad reputation with numbers.

 

BTW. Remove the 100k overtracked in US and add 7% for the others places and you will have the 10 million while only adding 5-10k in most countries... VGC is already not accurate with any tracker in the world except Japan... so what the big deal.



ethomaz said:

That what makes VGC have a bad reputation with numbers.


have to agree with this, sony said 10 million every site have so said 10million you come here you not see 10 million, new ppl not comming back.



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BeElite said:

Yes im sure they are losing sleep over vgs undertracking.  Some of you need to get real, how the hell do you even come up with such delusion of grandeur.  

How do we come up with it? Sony IS a VgChartz Pro customer. Do you think they are simply getting the information just for shits and giggles? I'd say they get it for legitimate business purposes. So it has nothing to do with delusion. Quite the opposite, actually. The ones in this forum (such as yourself) that do not believe Sony uses any VgChartz information need to open your eyes, and realize that simply isn't the case.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

I should just stop coming to this site. It's becoming apparent that it's useless for tracking sales...



ioi said:
ethomaz said:

I can just show what I have here about Europe.

Germany 540,000 as of Jun 28, 2014: http://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/Sony-Aktie-Japaner-ziehen-in-Deutschland-mit-der-PS4-Microsofts-Xbox-One-davon-1000231563

Italy 220,000 as of Jun 26, 2014: http://www.e-duesse.it/News/Videogiochi/700-mila-console-next-gen-in-Italia-entro-la-fine-del-2014-173355

Spain 275,000 as of Jun 12, 2014: http://blog.es.playstation.com/2014/06/12/entrevista-james-armstrong/

 

I can check only Gemarny and it is ~40k undertracked... if the same happens with the others place then I guess most Europe is undertracked.

Yeap I believe VGC is undertracked in main Europe and not just MEAA.

BTW if PS4 is undertracked 10k in 50 of the 100 countries it is released then that is already 500k.

 

 

Our current regional data for PS4:

Americas

USA - 3.92m
Canada - 0.35m
Latin America - 0.32m
Total Americas - 4.59m

Europe

UK - 0.98m
France - 0.55m
Germany - 0.60m
Spain / Portugal - 0.33m
Italy - 0.26m
Nordic - 0.16m
Benelux - 0.22m
Rest of Europe 0.42m
Total Europe - 3.52m

Middle East, Africa and Asia

Japan - 0.66m
Australia / New Zealand - 0.25m
Middle East - 0.10m
Africa - 0.03m
Asia - 0.30m
Total MEAA - 1.33m

Total worldwide estimate - 9.44m

 

In which regions do you believe that PS4 is being undertracked on VGChartz?


But the links he gave you were all nearly 2 months old.

This might be to much to ask, but how much do you have the PS4 at in Germany for the 28th of June? And in Italy for the 26th of June? And in Spain for the 12th of June?

Would appreciate an answer. Thanks upfront!



*tip toes into thread*

not long ago "VGC also thought" its PS4 numbers were correct and then suddenly adjusted up ~200k out of nowhere, because it had been undertracked for around 2 months
I don't really care whether the front numbers quickly get adjusted or not, as I've already said that's beyond even a first world problem, it's just that it doesn't matter what anyone says, vgc numbers are a wild card until several months have passed after the debated period
whatever info ioi had on those months was wrong, they could still be wrong after adjustments and the most recent weeks could be wrong as well. a lot can be wrong and easily account for the missing numbers. that's specially true when a system does so well and exceeds expectations



mochachino said:
I should just stop coming to this site. It's becoming apparent that it's useless for tracking sales...


Don't go. Stay for the forums, they have some nice discussions, and I always pick up a lot of news here. Saves me time browsing youtube or dozens of websites.

I basically lurked around for ages, just looking at the numbers on the front page, never bothering reading forums and discussions about sales. I joined finally, and have really enjoyed reading some very knowledgable people's posts (and a lot of spam inbetween).

But, sadly, I joined at the bad time, just in time to lose all my confidence in VGC numbers, as they first tracked a game that never released for two weeks (Spiderman on XOne) and then the following week tracked another game that was only available in the bundle without tracking the bundle (Borderlands for Vita).

It has then occured to me that most numbers probably aren't extrapolated from a sample, but simply guessed. Because, no matter how large or small the sample size had been, it would have showed a big round zero sales for Spiderman.

Since, I lost all interest in VGC numbers, I could care less for the numbers on the front page, but I stay, read and write here, and receive great info on NPD, GfK, Media Create numbers from great users who publish them here.

So, I don't care if VGC adjusts to 10m or leaves it at 9.4m, because I know it has sold more than 10m. Maybe I'm just being silly or naive, but I trust Sony more than VGC.