I'll go with 200k.
The Ps4 is already taking would be XB1 gamers away from MS. The last of Us is a big sell for anyone that has a 360, missed out on TLoU on the PS3 and wants to buy a next gen console. If they are already leaning towards the PS4, the last of us will be that final push. For such gamers, it would be a brand new IP.
It probably wouldnt be higher than 175k though..... but 200k looks cooler.