It's a little early to tell don't you think.

Not really, no.  Look how hyped up Titanfall was immediately after E3 until it's release, and it sold over three million on all consoles, two million on the Xbox One, and Titanfall was supposed to be the GoTG CoD killer.  You haven't heard so much of a word from the Xbox fanbase about being interested in this game.  Partially because of how bad the trailer was.  Anyways, it's not a shooter, so it's already missed a large part of the Xbox audience.

Well Judgment was a shitty effort by a 2nd studio in Epic without the real Gears guys so it's obvious why it didn't sell as well. But people are ready for Gears to get back to why they love it. People aren't sick of AC and they release 1 or 2 games a year. The Halo 5 development time and super early month long beta will be the test of if 343i has what it takes to do a FULL Halo game right. They have no problems with story, its just that MP that needs an adjustment which it will get. Halo 4 was almost an Xbox One launch title, it would have been so damn polished if it ended up that way. But my point, people aren't tired of either, they just don't like change.

I'm not sure about Gears but we'll see. I expect a big fall in sales for the next Gears game. 

Ubisoft is making too many AC games and soon just like most series, the series will decline in popularity. COD is experiencing that now. That what I hope will never happen to Halo, but if they release too many games, then sales will fall. 

There is a difference between a AAA game and a low budget or AA game that sells extremely well (Minecraft). The profit margin on those games are huge if they get a large return. I've acknowledged that MS has some good games coming but they are only mid level games. The big games are the usual status quo titles. I think I realized that Quantum Break might be that game. Hopefully it is.

Don't think they'll ever release big Halo games like Ubisoft does with AC. They'll be back on their 3 year release cycle.

Really?

I guess the success with Arcade games on x360 was a mere coincidence.

You know, State of Decay, Dust: Tale of an Elysian, Battleblock Theater, Braid, Fez, Super Meat Boy, just to name a few.

Titanfall, a next gen Xbox One console exclusive sold more than all the other Xbox One exclusives.  Halo and Gears.  Xbox 360s top selling exclusives.  Kind of points towards the fanbase being more interested in shooters than anything else.

And I did say "a large part of  the audience," afterall.  "A large part" certainly doesn't mean all.

It isn't exclusive.