i love all this talk about the console market shrinking with no proof, until we have a generation where the market actually shrinks, this is just wishful thinking from fans of a console nobody wants. the console market is only shrinking for nintendo its been that way since the nes, until nintendo hit lighting in a bottle and those buyers are not coming back.

Isn't that pretty much the same as a normal console life-cycle chart? If anything, the home console market is healthier now then it was in 2006 as the decline period hasn't been as significant as it obviously was leading up to 2006.

I'm not saying anything. The numbers speak for themselves. Sales have been lowering in the last years.

I know where you're coming from. Sales are always decreasing at the end of generations, so that would not prove anything. However, if you look at how 6th gen consoles (essentially PS2) were selling in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and compare it to what PS3, X360 and Wii have been selling in 2012, 2013 and 2014, you will realize the latter aren't as good. Similarly, compare X360+Wii+PS3 sales in 2005, 2006 and 2007 with WiiU+PS4+XOne sales in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The conclusion will be the same.

The console market is not a novelty anymore and people are spending their money like crazy on smartphones, mobile apps and other digital content. The shiny future of AAA dedicated hardware + software (aka videogame consoles) has come to an end. From now on, there's only the old school to support this industry.

Not if you add PS2 numbers. It won't look that much healthy.

If the PS4 and Xbone can keep at the rate they're selling (which I doubt they can), it'll be fine, but who knows?

Imagine, Ps4 sells 200mil life time. Is it that hard to imagine this? Considering it's already sold 7mil in 5 months, it will probably sell for 10 years+, there are whole new markets that in previously generations did not touch a console before (China with its 1.3billion population).

Think this way.

If Nintendo had sold their usual 30~40 millions, we would have saw something between 190~~200 millions home console. If it wasn't by Wii huge sucess, 7th Gen could be under 6th Gen.

Now, 8th Gen has almost ZERO chance of getting over 7th Gen.If you think Wii U can hit 30M (N64 numbers, when currently it is unber NGC), then PS4 needs to do PS2 numbers (extremely hard), without hurting XONE (even harder). And all of that, without Japan.

I wouldn't be surprised if 8th Gen stays under 6th, to be honest.

This chart should put things into perspective, as far as how screwed the Xbox One is.

As for Wii U, do I really need to say anything?

Do you really think Nintendo will sell that less consoles?

This is basically how I see it.

Playstation - 100-120 million
Xbox One - 60-80 million
Wii U - 20-30 million