Mr Khan said:
sc94597 said:
Mr Khan said:
that's because Microeconomic models only ever function under ideal macro conditions. You can't talk about a supply-demand gap when the supply-demand gap in employment is huge for much larger reasons than minimum wage.
This is why they should teach Macro first. Teaching micro first makes people think that micro models are how the economy "should" work.
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Unfortunately macro-economics is too far behind to do that. It is arguable whether or not micro economics is scientific, and the amount of conflicting hypotheses and data found in macro is so much greater, at least micro-economics has a deductive basis to make up for the insuffiecient inductive basis, macro seems more like a bunch of competing philosophies: neo-keynesian, new-keynesian, (blanket label) keynesian, neo-classical, monetarism, austrian, etc, etc. There was a time when keynesians encompassed all of macro-economic thought as being correct for instrumental reasons, it worked (at least seemingly), but then it started to not work during the many crises of the 70's and ever since. Ultimately, it seems better to just use deductive logic until something empirical can be resolved (if it can be resolved, maybe the austrians are right with the economic calculation problem.)
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Heh, austrian school is just the manifestation of the cancer of post-positivism in the body of economics (just as the post-positivist cancer struck in most other social sciences at the end of the 20th century).
Macro works because it deals in pure aggregates, whereas individuals are by no means bound to follow the dictates of microeconomics as some seem to believe. Aggregates do work through the noise and arrive at the mean actions of a population.
(edit: not trying to make it sound like i'm disparaging all other economic schools of thought, which i might disagree with but at least Chicago School and Monetarist branches have something to bring to the table. I have a very dim view of Austrian in particular and feel its very presence distracts from serious discourse in the field)
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I wasn't declaring the austrian school as correct in their protest to positivism, outright (in fact: I tend to disagree with their quick refusal to treating economic thought like a science.) However, as it is now, science has not succesfully been applied to economics. These schools of thought all use models which support their own claims, and they create these models to support such claims. No model has been empirically verified as superior to any others, however. So ultimately it's a bunch of a competing hypotheses. This is precisely why private businesses and the sector in its entirety don't use macro-economic models. They aren't any more reflective of reality than micro ones, and for the purposes of these firms, micro ones at least give them ideals to push toward that are likely in line with nature. Nevertheless, many keynesians have historically opposed the minimum-wage as well, for many of these same reasons.
After researching the topic, it appears that you are citing the empirical study and explanation given by David Card and Alan Krueger. Here's an interesting article about it, what are your thoughts?
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/03/the_vice_of_sel.html
I agree very much with the following quotes:
Another reason why Card-Krueger hasn't flipped my position: Despite my admiration for their craftsmanship, even the best empirical social science isn't that good. I expect true theories to predict the data only two-thirds of the time - and false theories to predict the data one-third of the time. (N.B. Many of the weaknesses in empirical social science are systematic, so the Law of Large Numbers is no salvation). Bayesian upshot: The Card-Krueger findings only slightly reduce my initial high confidence that the minimum wage causes unemployment.
But suppose you disagree with me on both counts. Suppose you have a weak prior about the disemployment effects of the minimum wage. Suppose further that you think that the best empirical work in economics is very good indeed. Doesn't existing evidence then oblige you to admit that the minimum wage has roughly zero effect on employment?
Hardly. Why not? Because there is far more "existing evidence" than meets the eye. Research doesn't have to officially be about the minimum wage to be highly relevant to the debate. All of the following empirical literatures support the orthodox view that the minimum wage has pronounced disemployment effects: