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PS4 still not catching to demand???

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Even the overpriced (+12%) PS4 consoles are selling out very fast in Denmark. So it's currently more expensive to buy a PlayStation 4 then pre-ordering an Xbox One.



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Dark_Feanor said:

If I trusted a little more in VGChartz software number I would say that Xone SW leading USA is a clue to the scalpers effects in sales.

The lead is only due the more retail exclusives...

1.5m vs 600k.

If you remove that the PS4 sold more because the retail 3rd-party sold more on PS4.



BMaker11 said:
Dark_Feanor said:
DerNebel said:

Oh I do, don't worry. Tell me, have ebay prices reached retail prices yet?


I have a suspicion that scalpers are affecting the availabilit of the console more than I would considered it helthy.

There are too many Ebayers pricing the PS4 at 450 to 500 and some with games and PS+ bundles.

There isn´t any general market rush to get the console, prices are much lower than PS3, Wii and 360 reached at their respective launch February.

Bold #1: I don't think you understand how capitalism works. It's pretty self correcting. Even if a bunch of scalpers started hoarding the product and making them scarce in stores, when people go on eBay for example and see 10,000 PS4s on there, they're not gonna bid one up a whole bunch because there's other listings. If they can't find one in stores and on top of that, only 200 units are on ebay, then they'll bid them up because there's way less supply (and that people actually aren't scalping the product since there aren't a whole bunch being listed).

Bold #2 and yet it sells out pretty much immediately whenever stock is available. A product constantly selling out as soon as its available not indicating a "market rush to get the item" can only exist in Bizarro world.

You need to understand that demand can decline and still be very high. So, when someone says PS4 demand seems to be decreasing, that doesn't mean that the supply has cught up with the demand or that no one wnats a PS4 anymore. It just means that the number of people ready to buy the console right now at inflated cost is going down. This will reflect in the price in the second hand market (or the equilibrium price is going down if you will). Unless the PS4 doesn't follow the normal laws of supply and demand (hint: it does) a decreasing price in the secondhand market means either that supply is going up or demand is going down.

So, in your example of 10 000 scalpers. If they can't get the price they are looking for, that is because the demand is not strong enough to support the price with the given supply. Also, not sure why you frame that concept as capitalism as it's really just a fundamental function of a market economy. Of course, a free market is a central concept in capitalism but it's not like supply and demand doesn't affect the price in other types of economic systems as well.



impertinence said:
BMaker11 said:
Dark_Feanor said:
DerNebel said:

Oh I do, don't worry. Tell me, have ebay prices reached retail prices yet?


I have a suspicion that scalpers are affecting the availabilit of the console more than I would considered it helthy.

There are too many Ebayers pricing the PS4 at 450 to 500 and some with games and PS+ bundles.

There isn´t any general market rush to get the console, prices are much lower than PS3, Wii and 360 reached at their respective launch February.

Bold #1: I don't think you understand how capitalism works. It's pretty self correcting. Even if a bunch of scalpers started hoarding the product and making them scarce in stores, when people go on eBay for example and see 10,000 PS4s on there, they're not gonna bid one up a whole bunch because there's other listings. If they can't find one in stores and on top of that, only 200 units are on ebay, then they'll bid them up because there's way less supply (and that people actually aren't scalping the product since there aren't a whole bunch being listed).

Bold #2 and yet it sells out pretty much immediately whenever stock is available. A product constantly selling out as soon as its available not indicating a "market rush to get the item" can only exist in Bizarro world.

You need to understand that demand can decline and still be very high. So, when someone says PS4 demand seems to be decreasing, that doesn't mean that the supply has cught up with the demand or that no one wnats a PS4 anymore. It just means that the number of people ready to buy the console right now at inflated cost is going down. This will reflect in the price in the second hand market (or the equilibrium price is going down if you will). Unless the PS4 doesn't follow the normal laws of supply and demand (hint: it does) a decreasing price in the secondhand market means either that supply is going up or demand is going down.

So, in your example of 10 000 scalpers. If they can't get the price they are looking for, that is because the demand is not strong enough to support the price with the given supply. Also, not sure why you frame that concept as capitalism as it's really just a fundamental function of a market economy. Of course, a free market is a central concept in capitalism but it's not like supply and demand doesn't affect the price in other types of economic systems as well.

I made a comment prior "But I guess his M.O. is that "they used to sell for $600 on eBay and now they're "only" selling for $520+. Demand has gone down!" even though it's still 30% higher than MSRP meaning demand is still really high". I didn't mean to imply that demand hasn't decreased somewhat, it was more to put his comment into perspective, because he's making it seem like prices are just falling rapidly in the secondhand market to bolster a point of "not as many people want PS4 anymore". When in actuality, the prices are higher than they were a few weeks ago.

And I'm pretty sure that example upholds my point. At that given supply, the price they want won't be supported because there's too many units available. There's no need to bid a PS4 up to 30% over MSRP when there's a bunch of different listings available. That's why I said if there's less available (200 units in my example), then the prices would go up (if they were also unavailable in stores).

And I only said "capitalism" because that's the economic model most associated with "supply and demand". It was the first thought that popped into my head.

 



binary solo said:
Shadow1980 said:
binary solo said:

PS4 will not outsell PS3 lifetime. Growth in the console market is a myth, it's gonna shrink this gen.

And you're basing this on what exactly? Historical precedent suggests you're wrong, and that console gaming has become ever more mainstream over time, at least in America and Europe (in Japan the market has remained stagnant at best over the decades). Even if the Wii U's lackluster sales result in lower total hardware unit sales this generation, I still think demand is sufficient to propel combined PS4 & XBO sales well ahead of combined PS3 and 360 sales, and that the PS4 will be the overall global market leader due to the majority of Xbox sales being concentrated in America. I don't think we've seen the last 100+ million seller in the console market. If you're one of those people that think most gamers are going to completely abandon console gaming just to play dinky little games like Candy Crush, well, to me that's like saying that people are going to abandon Ford, GM, and Toyota for Huffy and Schwinn.

And the 7th gen pretty much broke all historical precedent. There's never been as fragmented a video gaming market than the one we're getting into now.

When you take out Wii's Blue Ocean (probably 50% of Wii's sales), which was largely a one generation wonder as evidenced by Wii U's dismal Gamecube-like sales, the 7th gen looks a lot like the 6th gen. 6th Gen was not far off 200 million total (albeit needing PS2 to sell well into the 7th gen to get there). 50 Million Wii's + 85 Million PS3s + 85 Million 360s = 220 million. That's about the size of the pie that PS4boneU will be fighting over.

OK PS4 may outsell PS3, but that will be at the expense of Xb one selling very poorly by comparison to 360. It won;t be because there's significant over all growth in the console market.

Hand held consoles are shrinking, and while they do more directly compete against mobile phone/tablet/iPod, don't think for a minute that mobile and tablet gaming isn't going to also affect home consoles. it will.


You've forgotten the other side of the medal. Smarthphones etc. are hand held devices as well. Little devices with little games. I started with little hand held devices and little games.

Yea, it is going to affect them... however not in one straight single colored way.



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Dat hype.



It's on fire on Amazon.com right now, will surely be sold out in the next 48 hours at max.



SnowPrince said:
It's on fire on Amazon.com right now, will surely be sold out in the next 48 hours at max.


That is crazy, it's sold out in Wall Mart now. Only available on amazon...



binary solo said:

And the 7th gen pretty much broke all historical precedent. There's never been as fragmented a video gaming market than the one we're getting into now.

When you take out Wii's Blue Ocean (probably 50% of Wii's sales), which was largely a one generation wonder as evidenced by Wii U's dismal Gamecube-like sales, the 7th gen looks a lot like the 6th gen. 6th Gen was not far off 200 million total (albeit needing PS2 to sell well into the 7th gen to get there). 50 Million Wii's + 85 Million PS3s + 85 Million 360s = 220 million. That's about the size of the pie that PS4boneU will be fighting over.

OK PS4 may outsell PS3, but that will be at the expense of Xb one selling very poorly by comparison to 360. It won;t be because there's significant over all growth in the console market.

Hand held consoles are shrinking, and while they do more directly compete against mobile phone/tablet/iPod, don't think for a minute that mobile and tablet gaming isn't going to also affect home consoles. it will.

The seventh generation did have a somewhat larger growth rate in terms of total hardware units. However, it is within more normal bounds for growth rate if we assume that gamers bought more consoles per capita (in other words, the percent of multi-console households increased). While determining the "true" size of the market (i.e., the actual number of console gamers) is difficult, we at least have some sort of clue how big the market is, at least in America. There was a report (from Nielsen, I think) which indicates that about 70 million U.S. households that owned at least one seventh-gen console, which given the current hardware tally translates to over 1.5 systems per console-owning household. They also gave estimates for the number that had either two or three systems, though I'd have to go hunt down the study again to get those figures. In any case, there is some significant overlap, which indicates the market may not be as fragmented as pure hardware sales numbers devoid of context might suggest. Assuming that an inconsequential number of households had two of any one system, then we have a maximum of 70-75 million households (assuming no multi-system households) and a minimum of 45-50 million households (assuming all Xbox and GameCube owners also owned a PS2, thus making the PS2's sales the upper cap) that owned a sixth-gen console. The actual number is probably somewhere closer to the middle of the range, though we don't know for sure. Still, accounting for population growth and the increasing average age of gamers (which in turn means a larger percentage of the population that are gamers), the sales growth we saw for the seventh generation may be perfectly normal.

I also sincerely doubt that half of the Wii's sales were from this supposed "Blue Ocean" of "casuals"/non-gamers. In fact, I don't believe in any "ocean" of any color, and that it comes down to things like price, games, and marketing. I know that the belief that said demographic was responsible for the Wii winning the generation is considered axiomatic amongst many despite the lack of any surveys or studies to support said belief, but looking at overall hardware sales patterns I see non-gamers as a relatively small portion of Wii sales. I'll spare you any "verbal diarrhea" (as you so blunty put it in a comment elsewhere) for the time being as that would require a good amount of analysis, but that is a subject for a thread I've been meaning to start.

As for handhelds, is their market shrinking because of phones and tablets, or is it primarily because of what Nintendo and Sony themselves did? As I believe things like games, price, and marketing are the primary causes of hardware sales, it's possible that those rinky-dink mobile games like Candy Crush have at best a miniscule effect on handheld sales.