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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will Pokemon XY Be The Highest Selling Title on 1 Platform This Entire Generation?

garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
bubblegamer said:
GTA6 on PS4 or X1 could. Call of Duty on PS4 or X1 could. Halo 5 on X1 could. Gran Turismo on PS4 could. One of those will happen.


I reconize all of those as possibilities except for Halo.  Halo 3, the biggest seller sold 11.87M according to VGC.  That was on the X360, which had a much larger install base than the 3DS currently does, and what the X1 probably will.  Pokemon XY sold 11.61M in 2013 alone.  By now, XY might already be above Halo 3.



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tbone51 on 02 February 2014
garretslarrity said:
tbone51 said:
Anfebious said:
What I'm more interested for is how it will compare to the other Pokemon games. Will it end up doing better than Pokemon Pearl/Diamond?


Its hard to tell. One thing is pokemon Diamond/Pearl was on DS. Every game had a better chance to sell on it than on 3DS. That said XY will hit imo one of 2 sales. Scenario 1= 15mil-17mil : If a successor (XY2/Z) or Remakes (in short a new main game) is announced and released in 2014 Scenario 2= 16mil-19mil : If Scenario 1 happens in 2015. Diamond/Pearl benefited imo from having Platinum release almost 2 years later!

I think Scenario 2 is far more likely.  2 reasons:

 

1.  Pokemon Bank isn't even up worldwide yet.  That is necessary for those who want to complete the Pokedex.  Therefore, most people  have not yet even "finished" the game.  It will probably take at least a few months after the whole Bank crisis is over for Z or Hoenn remakes to even be announced,

 

2.  Worldwide Release:  The global audience got XY just a year after B2W2 because localization wait periods have been shrinking for generations.  Now that we have made it to worldwide releases (which I hope this stays this way), the whole world will be the slower release schedule that Japan is used to.

your right, i made a thread on how each generation was closing in the gap, now (hopefully) it'll be worldwide releases every time! (i can deal with  up to a month apart)

Japan BW released Sept 2010 ~ BW2 released July 2012 (a year and 10 months) where as US had BW March 2011 ~ BW2 Oct 2012 (1 year 6 months)

It was definitely worse in the first 3 generations! Anyway check out my thread and leave a post, think you might like it (pokemon comparison in sales!)

 

Take a look at this http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=177507&page=1#10



garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
tbone51 said:
garretslarrity said:
tbone51 said:
Anfebious said:
What I'm more interested for is how it will compare to the other Pokemon games. Will it end up doing better than Pokemon Pearl/Diamond?


Its hard to tell. One thing is pokemon Diamond/Pearl was on DS. Every game had a better chance to sell on it than on 3DS. That said XY will hit imo one of 2 sales. Scenario 1= 15mil-17mil : If a successor (XY2/Z) or Remakes (in short a new main game) is announced and released in 2014 Scenario 2= 16mil-19mil : If Scenario 1 happens in 2015. Diamond/Pearl benefited imo from having Platinum release almost 2 years later!

I think Scenario 2 is far more likely.  2 reasons:

 

1.  Pokemon Bank isn't even up worldwide yet.  That is necessary for those who want to complete the Pokedex.  Therefore, most people  have not yet even "finished" the game.  It will probably take at least a few months after the whole Bank crisis is over for Z or Hoenn remakes to even be announced,

 

2.  Worldwide Release:  The global audience got XY just a year after B2W2 because localization wait periods have been shrinking for generations.  Now that we have made it to worldwide releases (which I hope this stays this way), the whole world will be the slower release schedule that Japan is used to.

your right, i made a thread on how each generation was closing in the gap, now (hopefully) it'll be worldwide releases every time! (i can deal with  up to a month apart)

Japan BW released Sept 2010 ~ BW2 released July 2012 (a year and 10 months) where as US had BW March 2011 ~ BW2 Oct 2012 (1 year 6 months)

It was definitely worse in the first 3 generations! Anyway check out my thread and leave a post, think you might like it (pokemon comparison in sales!)

 

Take a look at this http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=177507&page=1#10


I already did leave a post on it!  :)



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Too_Talls on 02 February 2014

the 3ds has far more units out there than the rest of games this gen. the Pokémon main series is one of the highest, if not the highest handheld attach rate games ever. it is going to take years before anything can compete with it.



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garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
aryu said:
I think it's unfair to compare 2 Pokemon games to a game such as Halo. Some people buy both versions of Pokemon but will only buy one copy of Halo.


Sure, some people do.  Though I think that it's fair to say that there are so few of those people that when we're talking sales numbers, they're negligible.  You mentioned in a later post how someone can buy both games out of confusion, I bet this happened a lot in the first generation, but now people are more familiar with how things work around here, and also the audience is more mature, and therefore knowledgeable, than it was in 1998.



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garretslarrity on 02 February 2014
vivster said:
I don't see X/Y reaching 15m. Even if it should be quite easy for GTAVI. Also Possibilities there for new IPs.
And don't underestimate the indies. Another Minecraft and that number can be beaten easily.


How could you not see it reaching 15M?  It sold 11.61M in 2013, with it only being out for 2 and a half months!  Look at the weekly software sales list, Pokemon XY is still at the number 1 spot!  And then look at the hardware list, the 3DS, its install base, is growing with that also being at the number 1 spot!



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Azhraell on 02 February 2014

There are a few games that could deny that. Cod (if Activision is able to improve a lot the next games... not like Ghosts was a flop though), Gta 6 or 7 and Gran Turismo.
Edit: a new successful IP could do it too.



JoeTheBro on 02 February 2014

Easily. You say it's tracking to 15 million? Last gen 15 titles sold more. Most of those were on Wii but still.



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tbone51 on 02 February 2014
garretslarrity said:
vivster said:
I don't see X/Y reaching 15m. Even if it should be quite easy for GTAVI. Also Possibilities there for new IPs.
And don't underestimate the indies. Another Minecraft and that number can be beaten easily.


How could you not see it reaching 15M?  It sold 11.61M in 2013, with it only being out for 2 and a half months!  Look at the weekly software sales list, Pokemon XY is still at the number 1 spot!  And then look at the hardware list, the 3DS, its install base, is growing with that also being at the number 1 spot!


Its Shipped #s as well in that 11.61mil figure, but even so sales should comfortably be about 11mil (i dont see more than 800k on store shelves). That said it sold another 200k this year (3 weeks) so its definitely around 11.2mil as of Jan 18th!



aryu on 02 February 2014
garretslarrity said:
aryu said:
I think it's unfair to compare 2 Pokemon games to a game such as Halo. Some people buy both versions of Pokemon but will only buy one copy of Halo.


Sure, some people do.  Though I think that it's fair to say that there are so few of those people that when we're talking sales numbers, they're neglibile.  You mentioned in a later post how someone can buy both games out of confusion, I bet this happened a lot in the first generation, but now people are more familiar with how things work around here, and also the audience is more mature, and therefore knowledgeable, than it was in 1998.

You do make a good point but what about parents who were never gamers? You can't just assume people would be familiar with how things work. Not everyone has played Pokemon so the mistakes made in gen 1 are likely to happen in any gen. Also, the game wants you to collect pokemon so people are sometimes inclined to buy both and grab all the legendaries. I don't think that it's negligible as you state.



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