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360 adjusted DOWN Ps3 adjusted UP!!!!

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Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).

Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?

My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.

If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.



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I didnt think Wii-u sales could have been any lower to be honest.

Go PS3 go. To think everyone called me crazy back in the day when I told them the PS3 would do well



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The difference will be even bigger going forward. I expect the gap to grow close to 3 million by the end of the year.



Serious_frusting said:
I didnt think Wii-u sales could have been any lower to be honest.

Go PS3 go. To think everyone called me crazy back in the day when I told them the PS3 would do well


who? 1 or two people here?    1000 people will say PS3 #1  only 2 here says doooomm!



Adobo said:
Serious_frusting said:
I didnt think Wii-u sales could have been any lower to be honest.

Go PS3 go. To think everyone called me crazy back in the day when I told them the PS3 would do well


who? 1 or two people here?    1000 people will say PS3 #1  only 2 here says doooomm!

I agree with him. There were plenty who never thought the PS3 would pass the 360 (myself included). Now the definition of "doing well" has to have perspective (the PS3 was still a money pit for Sony), but it passing its strictest competitor wasn't always a certainty.



                                                                                                                                            

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mmm VGC shows:

USA 6'8 million total hardware YTD
Europe 8'3 million total hardware YTD
Japan 5'8 million total hardware YTD

USA is way behind Europe, and it's surprisngly near Japan numbers....Is this even possible??



kowenicki said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Interesting.

so how do you account for the supply of the PS3 being around 0.5m most of time accordiong to VGC, especially considering the PS3 is on sale in a lot more markets than the 360?

hint: you're wrong.

Where are you getting .5m PS3s? Also, I'm not saying that's it's a surefire 1.5m (or 1.4m which is the actual gap) retail. But you act as if it's impossible to have that many in circulation which is just silly. If you count stores like Kmart, Sears, Radioshack, Costco, and Toys R'us to the list I mentioned earlier. You have over 36,000 retail stores worldwide and that's not including overseas retailers, the stock in distribution centers, or the ever growing online retail market.



kowenicki said:
Euphoria14 said:
kowenicki said:
360: 80m + shipped end of Sept with 78.45m sold through according to VGC. 1.55m on shelves!

Yeah, ok.



Serious question as I am not well versed in this subject, how many consoles is normal for a console heading into the holiday season?

This is for the end of September.

Big shipments will start toward the end of October.

It isnt a normal holiday season either...  PS3 and 360 will be down YOY this year.

The point is that we dont know the normal supply as the numbers for the 360 in particular have been off for ages.  The PS3 is anyones guess as we dont get the numbers any more.

Im not just having a go for the sake of it.  I am using common sense and the extra information of the shipment number.  it just does not make any sense whatsoever, hasnt done for years.  The 360 is undertracked by a significant amount in Rest of World and perhaps slightly in Europe imo.

 


Look I typically cant stand 360 and love to see them out sold every week but for once I agree with Kowenicki, with 80 million shipped unless those numbers are rounded up would leave me having their sale through numbers around 79.2 million and I assume that shipped number is through 8/5. If that is true then their sell through would be slightly higher to 79.3 million.



theprof00 said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).

Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?

My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.

If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.


I pretty much answer this in my reply to kowenicki so for the numbers I'll direct you to that post. But I think you're right about shipping 360s/ PS3s early for the holidays. Probably not for production purposes but rather for shipping space though.



Normando said:
theprof00 said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).

Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?

My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.

If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.


I pretty much answer this in my reply to kowenicki so for the numbers I'll direct you to that post. But I think you're right about shipping 360s/ PS3s early for the holidays. Probably not for production purposes but rather for shipping space though.

I know you're skeptical, but take it from me.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=148950&page=1

We have a prediction league for the last 10 weeks of the year.
Last year I was 5th out 39. My xbox prediction was 2 out of 39. 

I think I understand the situation a little more than you expect me to. No offense, of course.
Plus, I've already had this discussion with Kowen before, last year in fact...(or maybe it was the year before?)
My argument at that time was that MS could have discounted shipments in preparation for a price cut or special deal before holidays.
Everyone argued that I was just wrong, or biased, or both, but lo and behold the very next week the contract deal opened up for all stores, basically confirming a larger than average supply.

This year we don't really have that. There is no reason for MS to offer any more deals. If anything, they want to sell 360s at regular price to offset or assist in any losses/costs that the One has created. I was right last time, and I'm pretty sure I'm right this time.

Add to that, the fact that Kowen has been keeping track of shipped vs sold for all consoles over this gen, and it becomes pretty apparent that 1.5m is an anomaly.

And not the kind of anomaly that your reasons seek to answer.
We're talking:
1. Price drop
2. Anticipation of massive increase in demand (possibly to cover xb1 shortages)
3. Some kind of massive new promotion
4. Ending production

Retail channels, lost inventory, etc etc just wouldn't cut it.