I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D
unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.
2,900 Best buys
It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.
Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).
Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?
My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.
If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.
I pretty much answer this in my reply to kowenicki so for the numbers I'll direct you to that post. But I think you're right about shipping 360s/ PS3s early for the holidays. Probably not for production purposes but rather for shipping space though.
I know you're skeptical, but take it from me.
We have a prediction league for the last 10 weeks of the year.
Last year I was 5th out 39. My xbox prediction was 2 out of 39.
I think I understand the situation a little more than you expect me to. No offense, of course.
Plus, I've already had this discussion with Kowen before, last year in fact...(or maybe it was the year before?)
My argument at that time was that MS could have discounted shipments in preparation for a price cut or special deal before holidays.
Everyone argued that I was just wrong, or biased, or both, but lo and behold the very next week the contract deal opened up for all stores, basically confirming a larger than average supply.
This year we don't really have that. There is no reason for MS to offer any more deals. If anything, they want to sell 360s at regular price to offset or assist in any losses/costs that the One has created. I was right last time, and I'm pretty sure I'm right this time.
Add to that, the fact that Kowen has been keeping track of shipped vs sold for all consoles over this gen, and it becomes pretty apparent that 1.5m is an anomaly.
And not the kind of anomaly that your reasons seek to answer.
1. Price drop
2. Anticipation of massive increase in demand (possibly to cover xb1 shortages)
3. Some kind of massive new promotion
4. Ending production
Retail channels, lost inventory, etc etc just wouldn't cut it.