0 - 3 days I hope! At worst NPD is next thursday.

Very, very eager to find out how much the Wii U sold.

You are of course absolutely correct. There are a myriad of options for third parties that differs from becoming Nintendo 2nd party developers essentially. The way I read John Lucas' position though is that with the imminent turnaround for the Wii U and projected struggles for Xbox and PlayStation there will be no option but to bring all software also to the Wii U. If this happens, the strength of Nintendo's first party offerings will make it the obvious console of choice for everyone. This line of thinking disregards two things:

First, some people (bless their black hearts) acctually prefer Sony or Microsoft exclusives and would rather play for example The Last of Us than Mario Kart 8 for example. These 'gamers' are on the absolute opposite side of the scale as myself, but they do exsist, and they are seemingly a lot more of them than John Lucas thinks.

Second, even if Wii U would get every single third party game developed. There are still a set of gamers that would buy the Wii U and other consoles. Perhaps the Wii U could become peoples 'primary' console with a steller first party lineup, but it's not like people would not be still buying XBoxes and PlayStations.

One could also start to suspect that the video game industry is filled with people who perhaps think a little too much like fanboys and not enough like businesses. By that I mean that there are some developers out there who just don't like Nintendo hardware, are vocal about it, and lets that cloud their better judgment. The Wii showed that being the massive runaway market leader is not insentive enough for some developers to support that platform. They wanted to indulge their 'artisitc vision' instead of taking their business to the largest market and putting their best effort on that hardware. Hopefully, the fallout of that way of thinking is begining to sink in and even developers will realize that it's better to make games that are profitable than games that makes them feel good about themselves. 

I suspect that just like there are consumers that would rather quit gaming than buy a Nintendo console (the level of irony of these people claiming a tag like 'gamer' is pretty intense) there are developers that feel the same way. Perhaps John Lucas' unity will weed out that particular breed of developers? No way to tell yet though and I am not entierly confident they even exsist to begin with.

Finally, before this gets too long (in review, it's already too late). Again, you make solid observations and logical conclusions, but I have to disagree with using Wii Fit U as an example of how the casuals have moved on. The way Wii Fit U is delivered to the consumer makes it a very poor measuring stick for that market now being unattainable. In fact, the Wii Fit meter if it ever becomes widely available might be the next mass market ignitor. Also, it could be that the masses have no interest in Wii Fit U, but that doesn't mean that they will never be interested in anything Nintendo will do in the future. Right now, it's obvious that Wii owners are not upgrading. The incentive is not there, but the people are. If Nintendo releases something that becomes the next 'it' thing, they already have a foot in the door with the Wii.

Again, I don't think Nintendo will find that catalyst, they did it twice last generation which is remarkable, doing it again is not likely I think, but like I said before. Nintendo is the only videogame company I think has the potential to do it. Perhaps the thing that makes the world blow up is Nintendogs U complete with cuddly puppy robot to parade your wii pad around the house or something else out of left field? This is why I said earlier that there are two potential winners of this generation. Wii U or PlayStation 4. If Nintendo strikes gold again, the potential is indeed huge as John Lucas points out. Maybe not 240 million huge, but massive. If the 8th generation marks a contraction back to a 'hardcore' driven market Playstation 4 will win based on their world wide appeal and general standing with hardcore gamers.

Hope this makes sense, now I am off to wash my keyboard out with soap for the continued used of words like 'hardcore', 'casual' and 'The Last of Us'.

Mario lost to Knack in the UK and didn't fare much better in Japan. The 8th Gen belongs to Sony.

You believe...I'm sure about numbers and facts, you believe in theories. I think that's the big difference between us in regards to all this matter of assessing devs.

Tell me which investment number is biased? Racing simulators or MMO are faked audiences? I don't have man-hours work numbers but at least I showed openness to see them and discuss them (unlike you that are probably afraid of dicovering the truth). And by intellectual achievements we see at least who is digging deeper, but I guess that's not of your interest too since it doesn't favor Nintendo. The fact is, no matter the criteria we take, if it's related to the developer's commitement, Nintendo fails miserably. And please tell me how can you know that they found "oil wells" in the past? And even if they did, how can you they are still finding them nowadays? Is it again about your faith in theories?

I think these are the main 2 points of your post, since the rest falls into the same faith in theories and misjudgment of my arguments and facts. And assuming the age of a company tells about its commitment to the gamer is also very wise. You just want to believe Nintendo is the best. Actually, I didn't expect you to admit anything other than that. It would be probably an insult for you to accept that Nintendo, the game developer you love so much and that you put your money in, is so poorly commited to the gamer.

I think we're done here. Keep believing in Nintendo and putting faith in that kind of religion. As for me, I will continue to be focus on my tastes as a gamer and on numbers and facts as a forum poster (and avoiding mixing those two).

The difference between 3DS and Wii U is that 3DS gets decent third party support.  Wii U isn't going to.

It has to do with the fact that Wii U isn't going to take off and pull a Nintendo handheld manuever on the 8th Gen consoles as you inferred in your first post where you said *cough* 3DS *cough*  ( unless it gets a dramatic price cut ) because it's not going to get the games that would allow it to do so).  And Nintendo's first party "franchises" are played out like they were in the Gamecube era.

Do you honestly beleive Knack will hold that lead in the long run in the UK, let alone worldwide?