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Next Gen Consoles Break 3M in December

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WMS has estimated December sales of 1.3 million Wii hardware units and 600,000 PS3 hardware units (200,000 PS3 hardware units were sold in November). The analyst says Xbox 360 sold 1.2 million units in December. Image December U.S. retail software sales should be up by 15% year on year according to analyst Wedbush Morgan Securities. In his monthly pre-NPD note, Michael Pachter forecast sales of $1.8 billion, up 15% compared to last year's $1.6 billion figure. The estimate reflects $927.5 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $600 million, or 183%. WMS expects current generation software sales of $947.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of $361 million (-28%). Sales growth over the last six months has averaged 16%, and WMS is reckoning on 25% monthly software sales growth in January and February. The forecasts reflect a slight decline for PS2 software sales (-3%), but a much more considerable decline for GameCube software (-67%) and for Xbox software (-63%). WMS says the tie ratio for Wii and PS3 leveled out at 2.5 in December, following a poor start for PS3 in November. The U.S. hardware installed base currently stands at 18 million next generation consoles (including handhelds) as of the end of November 2006 (up from 8 million at year end 2005).



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Holy crap!! That would put Wii at around 1.75m in the US, PS3 on 800k and Xbox 360 on 4.6m PS3 software must have done ok in December too - a tie ratio of 2.5 would mean something like 2m PS3 software sales, and 4.4m Wii software sales! Also 18m total can be used to indicate DS and PSP sales in December - anyone?



More info: # We expect December U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, January 11. We forecast sales of $1.875 billion, up 15% compared to last year's $1.637 billion figure. # Our estimate reflects $927.5 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $600 million, or 183%. We expect current generation software sales of $947.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of $361 million (-28%). # There may be upside to our overall estimates if PS2 software sales are greater than our $668 million estimate, particularly if consumers opted for the lower priced current generation software. There may be some downside to our estimates if our $268 million estimate in combined software sales for the PS3 and the Wii is too high, particularly if low tie ratios from the "eBay effect" (hardware units sold for resale without accompanying software sales) was as pronounced as it was last month. # Sales growth over the last six months has averaged a robust 16%, and we continue to believe that contribution from next generation software sales will continue to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting moderate declines in current generation software sales.