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COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

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I'm not as crazy as Tbone and Ryng, I predict more than 1 million and it to have very amazing legs, so in the end we might end up at the same place. I think this title will have amazing digital output so 1.3-1.5 million is possible with digital for first 3 days.

Last edited by Acevil - 4 days ago

 

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Acevil said:

I'm not as crazy as Tbone and Ryng, I predict more than 1 million and it to have very amazing legs, so in the end we might end up at the same place. I think this title will have amazing digital output so 1.3-1.5 million is possible with digital for first 3 days.

Hylian trying to outdo us lol. I wonder if they are going to count the bundles that were presold?

 

Wasnt MHW in a similar situation last year??



ooof prediction time, so in terms of points its likely gonna come under splatoon 2. We know splatoon 2 opened to ~675,000. Now this woulda been the defining factor if pokemon lets go didn't come out. Pokemon lets go opened to 661,240 with a point score of 279. So that was a ratio of 2.37 extrapolated. If we applied that to this score it would be insane we would be looking at ~2133032 MILLION UNITS SOLD!
so to narrow this a little further we have to look at the last iteration games that came out and see their attach ratios.
With that said smash for 3ds opened with 958,317 to a HW base of ~16m. Due to the 3ds's popularity guaranteed that multiple 3d's belong to the same users. so just gonna average that out to ~15.5m. This was back in 2014 so 3 and a half years after the initial release. We can deduce that by that point initial users likely would have stopped playing the handheld or it simply broke. lastly factoring in that this was the first smash iteration which is a fighter on the 3ds that wasn't known for the genre we can bump that down a heck of a lot more to ~4m (my guess). lol with that possibly made up number we get an attach ratio of 23% of those who may be into the genre buying this game. Extrapolating that for switch we get 5.2m*.23 = 1.2m.
LITT LOL SO I HAVE MY NUMBERS. Anything between 1.2m-2.1m units.

konnichiwa said:
animegaming said:

Too be fair though, Berseria released in the summer of 2016 in Japan which was like 2 and a half years ago.

Kind of sad that Berseria was basically the only PS4 game. Zesteria was a PS3 game that also got a port for PS4(but basically felt like a PS3 game) and then Vesperia another port.

Last gen so many games popped up while their were four last gen? (not including ports like symphonia).

maybe next year we could see another mainline entry...



  Days SSB Ultimate SSB 3DS SSB Wii U SSB 4 all
21 147 53 15 17 32
20 140 110 15 19 34
19 133 137 20 20 40
18 126 155 21 21 42
17 119 181 21 21 42
16 112 208 23 22 45
15 105 226 28 23 51
14 98 238 30 25 55
13 91 256 45 26 71
12 84 272 86 27 113
11 77 294 143 25 168
10 70 322 179 25 204
9 63 340 216 26 242
8 56 352 264 31 295
7 49 367 307 31 338
6 42 376 359 49 408
5 35 394 419 76 495
4 28 451 509 102 611
3 21 527 584 117 701
2 14 641 650 155 805
1 7 752 798 211 1009
  6 783 854 229 1083
  5 818 909 230 1139
  4 838 940 234 1174
  3 870 982 242 1224
  2   1018 245 1263
  1   1066 251 1317


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Acevil said:

I'm not as crazy as Tbone and Ryng, I predict more than 1 million and it to have very amazing legs, so in the end we might end up at the same place. I think this title will have amazing digital output so 1.3-1.5 million is possible with digital for first 3 days.

Predicting biggest numbers doesn't mean be crazy, you are actually crazier than us with that prediction. ;)



Actual prediction of the year: Super Smash Bros Ultimate will sell in 12 million

The ratio won't be as crazy as people are predicting. Pokemon LGP/LGE is a casual game hence the higher ratio. Smash usually does a 1:1 ratio, and I predict 800-1000k range.

1.5 million is a big big stretch for Smash

YNWA

ZODIARKrebirth said:
konnichiwa said:

Kind of sad that Berseria was basically the only PS4 game. Zesteria was a PS3 game that also got a port for PS4(but basically felt like a PS3 game) and then Vesperia another port.

Last gen so many games popped up while their were four last gen? (not including ports like symphonia).

maybe next year we could see another mainline entry...

Doubt it, Berseria was announced in the middle of 15 and released a year later in Japan and early 17 in the West. Best case would probably be a game that releases in 2020 in Japan for PS4/PS5 and later for PS5 in the West? 






konnichiwa said:
ZODIARKrebirth said:

maybe next year we could see another mainline entry...

Doubt it, Berseria was announced in the middle of 15 and released a year later in Japan and early 17 in the West. Best case would probably be a game that releases in 2020 in Japan for PS4/PS5 and later for PS5 in the West? 

I think more likely PS4/Switch title for Japan, and I think it being announced next year is possible.



 

kopstudent89 said:
The ratio won't be as crazy as people are predicting. Pokemon LGP/LGE is a casual game hence the higher ratio. Smash usually does a 1:1 ratio, and I predict 800-1000k range.

1.5 million is a big big stretch for Smash

If I recall more than a year not single Nintendo game on Switch didnt had 1:1 ratio.

Smash Bros selling 1.2m+ in first week seems like a lock.