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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U to dominate & PS4 to fall behind - Jan. 2013

happydolphin on 06 January 2013
MikeRox said:
As a massive Nintendo fan (I was one of the few people who in 2006 pre release thought the Wii would be a success and was the way forwards), I don't see the Wii U enjoying anywhere near the success that the Wii had.

I think MS will pretty much maintain where they are, I think Sony will improve their US performance by launching closer to the next Xbox, and promoting stuff such as Uncharted. As it is, I don't see anywhere near the market for Nintendo this time around.

However, there is a big unless in that, as Nintendo prove time and time again, all they need is the "killer app" showing off their system to it's full potential. They've not unveiled that yet, but they don't have any competition yet. I think we need to see what Nintendo show us in the next 6 months before we can make any realistic predictions on their situation this generation.

All I know is ports of PS360 games will not make for good 3rd party software sales in the long run. The system is definitely powerful enough to carve it's own market out again though.

I won't argue because I agree with your post overall, but I just wanted to say that Nintendoland and MarioU were killer apps. Imho they've lost some of their selling power (NLand as spiritual successor to Wii Sports). More in agreement with you, the new "killer app" is yet to be seen, but Nintendo almost always comes up with one (bar 64 and cube).



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Corey on 06 January 2013

Considering we know next to nothing about the PS4 and 720 it's silly to start predictions like this.

Microsoft and Nintendo don't own the US market, things can be completely changed in a generation, PS2 use to rule the roost and that changed, consumers don't pledge allegance to a company they just go with what they think is the better option.

Anything can happen but the PS4 failing? Unlikely, Sony have shown that they are continuing to support the hardcore gamer and if they release a quality system expect them to be up the top of the console charts.

If anything the Wiiu will be the one to "fall behind", the casual market which gave nintendo such success with the wii is either content with their wii or have moved on to other casual gaming such as smartphones.



MikeRox on 06 January 2013

Yeah I as great as Nintendoland and Mario U are, I don't see them as killer apps in the way Wii Sports and NSMB Wii were. I think they possibly seem a bit too familiar for the market right now. But all I know is you can never discount Nintendo. They always seem to know exactly what to pull out of their magic hat.



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

happydolphin on 06 January 2013
Miguel_Zorro said:

Not a chance.  The GameCube was flimsy and Nintendo got the launch of it all wrong.   Do you remember the controller for it?  There's no way Sony would produce something like the GameCube.

In terms of brand image the controller was a fail, but in terms of controls there is only 1 controller better than the cube's and that's the 360's. At its time, the cube was a brilliant controller for those who actually used it.

Also, how was the cube flimsy? It beats the PS2 in demolition tests.



MikeRox on 06 January 2013

Don't diss GC, it was the best system of that gen... it's just a shame nobody else realised that :p



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

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gronk-bonk on 07 January 2013

ps4 will be the next ps vita.



Bet with ninjablade:

Ninjablade wins if the next 5 multiplat on the wii u are inferior to the 360 version.

I win if one of the 5 mulitplats are on par or superior on the Wii U.

M.U.G.E.N on 07 January 2013
Miguel_Zorro said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
psrock said:

Take a deep breath. No..........MS dominates the UK, NA and still loses yearly. Its been 4 straight years...


I actually see the PS4 being the GC of next gen, we will see.


Not a chance.  The GameCube was flimsy and Nintendo got the launch of it all wrong.   Do you remember the controller for it?  There's no way Sony would produce something like the GameCube.


the thing is though ANYTHING could happen..these few generations should have taught us that. But at the same time, even with the disaster of a launch the ps3 was, look how it was turned around by Sony. I doubt there will be any issues like that this time around. A solid reasonably priced machine with some nice power, at least according to the latest rumors.



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happydolphin on 07 January 2013
Miguel_Zorro said:

Seriously, I remember going into EB Games and picking up the GameCube controller and feeling like it was going to fall apart in my hand.

The Cube itself looked too much like it was just for kids with the bright colours.  Case in point - the Wii is very similar spec-wise to the Cube, but is attractively packaged with a better controller, and it sold like gangbusters.

Yes, you're correct. The Wii revitalized the brand image of Nintendo's home console.

However, the cube controller and the cube were anything but flimsy. Rather they were extremely resiliant. So let's say you're half right (I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy ;B)



VGKing on 07 January 2013
*Sound Of Rain said:

I haven't made any predictions in about a year, last time I was a complete failure and didn't even come close. I am very confident with this prediction though and decided to post.

My prediction for next gen is that Nintendo will dominate with the Wii U, Microsoft will come in a relatively distant 2nd with the 720, and Sony will fall behind and not even compete with the PS4.

My reasoning for this is pretty simple,

 

The Wii U will dominate Japan without question IMO. The 720, doesn't stand a chance with relatively no momentum going in. As for Sony, I think it will be very similar to the 3DS VS. the PSV there. The Wii U already has Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest is coming soon too. Nintendo also has many big franchises of their own with Kirby, the Wii series, Mario, and the more popular than ever Animal Crossing. Don't count Pikmin out either as I see that growing a lot with the Wii U. I just see it being a landslide win for Wii U in Japan. This alone will be a huge advantage.

 

The Wii U is off to a slow start in Europe but this will improve in time. Once the big games start coming, so will the sales. This will be close between all 3 and there will be no clear winner in Europe.

 

In the U.S, I see it being a battle between Wii U & 720. The Wii U will sell slightly better IMO with the 720 in a very close 2nd. Sony is losing presence in the U.S.

 

Overall, I believe Sony doesn't have the ability to compete next gen. Nintendo & Microsoft will dominate the casual market and only the most core Sony fans will buy the PS4. They don't have any big franchises to compete with only 1st party games and they no longer have the massive 3rd party support of the PS/PS2 days because of Microsoft. Microsoft will have Kinect 2.0 and Nintendo will have its Haptic peripheral as its secret weapon.

The reason Wii U will beat out 720 is because of Japan. They will be close in the U.S & Europe but Wii U will lead by at least 15 Million in Japan IMO

Anything can change next-gen. Those leading in certain regions won't necessarily pass on that success to their succesors. 

Sony still has massive 3rd party support. It's just not as exclusive as it was back in the PS2 era.



hatmoza on 07 January 2013

I see a lot PS4 doom posts.

That can wait my good sirs. The chartz is already undergoing a Vita and Wii U doom phase.



I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson