UPDATED CHART: December 13th 2012


I adjusted the 1st week numbers, and added the actual Japan figures, bringing the total for the first week up by 10k... EU certainly did not go down as much as the averages I worked out, but were still what I predicted (80k-120k for EU). In fact, the WiiU now has the lowest second week drop for the last 4 consoles launched there! (Not counting handhelds). All in all, it's looking pretty likely that second week figures will be above the 300k I predicted, but by how much? :P

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ORIGINAL POST: December 11th 2012

So far, the WiiU launch looks just fine despite the negativity surrounding the EU numbers... So now that rough Japan figures are in, what can we predict about the WiiU's second week?

If we average out each consoles % decrease for the EU(-64.0%) and Japan(-67.7%), and apply it to WiiU's initial sales, we'd get about  64k for EU and about 99k for Japan, bringing WiiU's second week total to about 294,000 units, a 67.3% decrease from it's first week totals.

However we could also apply only the Wii's % decrease for EU and Japan at its launch, as the USA 2nd week decrease for the WiiU is pretty much in line with the decrease the Wii experienced. (66.9% for Wii, 68.3% for WiiU) In this case, we'd get 79k for EU and 83k for Japan, totaling 293,000, almost exactly the same as our first senario.

So WiiU's second week numbers should fall somewhere around 300k units, I would guess a little higher. My official prediciton would be somewhere around 90k-110k for Japan, and around 80k-120k for Europe (I beleive the drop will not be as drastic due to low first week)

What are your thoughts? What would you think the second week numbers will look like?
*I'll update the Chart as more information becaomes available!

This is a good idea. Hope you can keep it up.

The Wii U is doing pretty well.

It's going to get interesting as weeks go by.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151051

Thats overall sales globally, this thread is about the second week sales, and has much more information about individual regions, especially in tyring to help what the future sales will be. The information is also in a much reasier to read and understand format.

I don't see why you linked the other thread.

Amazing thread. Good job.

The Wii U will sell well in Europe in my opinion though its the U.K. market that Nintendo needs to convince. Germany and France are pretty much pro-Nintendo country so hopefully Nintendo can get its act together and act fast for the UK.

As for the U.S. and Japan, it will sell all its shipments until the end of the holiday season, that's a given.

By year-end, Wii U sales should end up towards 3-3.5 million give or take or am I too optimistic? :s

I'd say a bit too optomistic, the Wii sold 2,954,781 units by the time 2006 came to a close, with roughly the same amount of time on shelves, and a stronger launch than the Wii U... I'd be more conservative and say maybe 2.5-3.0 million by years end, but thats just me :P

The Wii was also severely supply-constrained.

EDIT: Nintendo forecasts 5.5 million by end of March. For comparison, the Wii sold about 5.84 million by end of March 2007, and they'd forecasted 6 million (about right, considering the time it takes for stock to ship and then sell). Meanwhile, at least one analyst firm has predicted 3.5 million for 2012.

Great thread. I imagine it will be around 280k so I picked the 300k option.

Less then 300 k