VGKing said: First of all, I can participate in any fucking thread I want. Deal with it. I follow the entire video game industry, not just Playstation.
Secondly, NPD started tracking Walmart back in July. Before that, they estimated. So you're being a bit of a hypocrite for critizing NPD estimating Walmart sales since ALL Vgchartz does IS estimates.....lmfao.
Last of all I just want to say....grow up. People will disagree with your opinions, this is a forum. I "permit" you to have your opinions, I just disagree with them. And what's this about "ridicule"? Did I make fun of you or something by disagreeing?
You can't make direct comparisons or estimates between Wii and Wii U launch titles. It is highly unlikely that Wii U will end up being as successful as the original Wii so that right there is MY reason for thinking Black Ops 2 won't reach 4 million LT.
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I suggested you avoid these threads, I didn't instruct you to do anything. And the reason I said so is that you pass judgment on things that you have no experience with. I, for instance, rarely even say anything when it comes to the PS3 and 360, as I don't own either one, and when I do say things about them, it's usually observations that have nothing to do with games themselves (such as noting patterns like most third-party titles being released on both platforms).
I don't try to predict how well a game will perform on the PS3 or 360, because I have no personal reference point for them.
Meanwhile, I don't think you have the remotest idea how NPD works, because they do exactly the same thing that VGChartz does - they track sales at certain stores (specific physical stores, not entire companies), then use that data along with mathematical and statistical analysis to produce estimates of total sales. There's a reason why NPD describes its data as "projected to 100% of the market". The primary difference between VGChartz and NPD is that VGChartz, as I understand it, doesn't collect quite as much raw data before performing the analysis. But the data collected differs, so sometimes you'll get significantly divergent results, and neither one is inherently more trustworthy. The only reason I'm more willing to trust VGChartz is that they clearly correct their models when data is inconsistent (such as when shipped numbers disagree with sold numbers in an unreasonable way).
As for the ridicule, what is a more appropriate term for "Really dude? Even if you were talking worldwide sales that is just not going to happen." That's not polite disagreement, that's mockery, it's ridicule. It may not be extreme, but that's what it is. It's the suggestion that for me to even THINK that Black Ops 2 could sell 4 million is utterly absurd. The idea that my opinion is so far from reasonable as to be completely rejectable without even bothering to ask for my reasoning. You didn't challenge my idea, you discarded it completely and openly. That's ridicule.
And what's this about not being able to make direct comparisons between Wii and Wii U launch titles? Isn't that exactly what I've done? Perhaps you mean that such comparisons are incomplete? Also, I don't see why the Wii U not selling as strongly as the Wii means that Black Ops 2 can't sell 4 million. Your reasoning is flawed. Let me describe it this way: is it possible for the Wii U to sell as well as, say, the Gamecube? Yes? Then it can sell 20 million units. An attach rate of 20% is not unfeasible on the Wii U, any more than it is on the 360 or PS3 - indeed, Modern Warfare 3 on the 360 has an attach rate of 20.6% right now, on a much larger install base.
I'm sure your next argument is going to say something along the lines of "the casuals"... if you do, I'll be stopping arguing with you, because it's the old tired argument that wasn't even true for the Wii, let alone the Wii U. More importantly, games like Call of Duty have much higher play by so-called "casuals" than most games released on the Wii. I just wanted to add this to prevent you from going for that absurd argument.
By the way, Modern Warfare 3 on the Wii? Don't forget the fact that they skipped Modern Warfare 2 (meaning a continuity issue of sorts), that the Wii U had already been announced well before its release, that the game wasn't even confirmed to be set for release on the Wii until a couple of months before release, that the confirmation took the form of a mention during an investor call, that it wasn't even mentioned in their MW3 press release, that it wasn't advertised, and that it was still lacking in features relative to the 360 and PS3 versions. None of this is true of Black Ops 2.
And most importantly, it's not even on the same platform - why is it that so many people on this forum will simultaneously criticise the Wii U for being like the Wii and being not like the Wii? You can't have it both ways - either the system has similar appeal to the Wii, and thus is likely to sell similarly well, or it's not like the Wii, in which case it makes no sense to argue the potential sales of any game on the system by comparison with the Wii.