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Forums - Sales Discussion - Holiday sales predictions based on these pricing bundle options.

 

Who will be top dog globally?

3DS 33 44.00%
 
360 6 8.00%
 
PS3 18 24.00%
 
Wii 1 1.33%
 
Wii U 7 9.33%
 
PSP 0 0%
 
PSV 2 2.67%
 
DS 0 0%
 
Ouya 2 2.67%
 
see dirty insides 6 8.00%
 
Total:75

Lets pretend its November and price changes/launches have all happened. Black Friday is right around the corner and the world is in a shopping frenzy with video game hardware right at the top. I'm going to list some reasonable pricing options and just give an idea of how many units you see each product selling in say December 2012. (also assume world does not end)

X360
Arcade+Kinect - $99 w/ contract
Arcade - $179
360 - $229
360+Kinect - $269
360/BO2 - $269
360/holiday bundle w/ 2games - $269
360/Halo4 special edition with crazy paint/2cont/etc - $399 (confirmed)

PS3 (new 4000 models)
16GB - $179
16GB+Move - $199
16GB+AllStarBattle - $199
250GB - $229
250GB/holiday bundle w/ 2games - $269
250GB/BO2 bundle - $269
500GB 2/free PSN+ 6mo (or similar) - $269

Wii
Wii - $99

Wii U
Wii U/Nintendoland - $279 (white/black)
Wii U/BO2 + ControlPro - $329 (black)

PSV (wifi only)
PSV - $249
PSV+memcard/CoD - $249
PSV+memcard/AC - $249

PSP
PSP - $119

3DS
3DS - $169
3DSXL - $199
3DS/XL+NSMB2 =+$30 (i.e. add $30 to either price above)

DS
DSi - $99

The there is the normal BF day type specials where any given console gets $50 gift cards to some store and so on.

For reference, last holiday...
DS - 1.4m
3DS - 5.1m
Wii - 3.2m
360 - 4m
PS3 - 3.4m
PSP - 1.2m
PSV - 0.5m

Consider DS, PSP, and Wii all have been replaced and 3DS/PSV both have many more games as well as Wii U may be supply constrained. (Wii only had 3m avail for world wide launch in 2006 and about same for PS3)

 

EDIT: updated OP based on some of your responses. BTW, I thought it was clear enough, but yes these bundles are ones I figured were likely to happen based on history. I meant this thread as a what if scenario to get an idea of what we may see in the market in order to make halfway decent predictions.



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Saved for update after xmas.



I may have the PSV bundles too low... but I think Sony will aggressively bundle it in an attempt to drive demand.

Here's my predictions in order:
3DS - 9m
PS3 - 3.5m
360 - 3.5m
WiiU - 3m
PSV - 3m
Wii - 2m
DS - less than 1m
PSP - less than 1m

This would have a solid growth in hardware sales overall and provide relatively sustained holiday sales for PS360 due to new pricing and bundling options even though they are both currently in double digit YoY losses.



superchunk said:

Here's my predictions in order:
3DS - 6M
PS3 -  3M
360 - 3.5m
WiiU - 2.3M
PSV - 2M
Wii - 1.5M
DS - less than 1m
PSP - less than 1


i think you're overly optimistic.

edit: apperantly strike out doesn't work in quotes..



I guess I'm a little more pessimistic than you, superchunk. my predictions:

3DS - 7.5m
X360 - 3m
PS3 - 2.8m
WiiU - 2.7m
PSV - 2.5m
Wii - 1.8m
DS - 0.7m
PSP - 0.5m



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superchunk said:

 

You have some information wrong. The PSV + 4gb mem + ACIII: Liberation bundle is $249.

http://us.playstation.com/psvita/systems/psv-assassin-s-creed-bundle.html

You forgot the 320gb PS3 + AC3 + 30 days of PS Plus bundle for $299

http://us.playstation.com/ps3/systems/assassin-s-creed-bundle.html

Prices pending any cuts.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

huh,op you really think they label the Halo 4 console price is $399 right now mean must be 399 later?
go check the TOX PS3 bundle price changes in last year

 

Chark said:
superchunk said:

 

You have some information wrong. The PSV + 4gb mem + ACIII: Liberation bundle is $249.

http://us.playstation.com/psvita/systems/psv-assassin-s-creed-bundle.html

You forgot the 320gb PS3 + AC3 + 30 days of PS Plus bundle for $299

http://us.playstation.com/ps3/systems/assassin-s-creed-bundle.html

Prices pending any cuts.

if you look at the bundle and price,i guess only Halo 4 bundle he actual check it's exist or not

others just throw some random bundle he think it will exist or write from his memory



3DS: No more than 7.5m

DS: ~1m

PSV: 1.5-2m

PSP: ~1m

Xbox360: ~3m

PS3: ~3m

Wii: 1.5m

WiiU: 3.5-4m (and that's if NSMBU is available: You have to remember that this is the first new HW in 6 years - ppl want new HW, they crave it!)

With ~ I mean give or take 300k units.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DS - >1 Million.
3DS - 6.5 - 7.0 Million, the largest this holiday, it'll pick up a lot due to XL and Mario + last Holiday's Hit games.
Wii - 1.5 - 2.5 Million.
360 - 3.0 -3.5 Million, it'll fall by a little but get picked up some by Halo.
PS3 - 3.5 - 4.0 Million, it might become the new 360 this holiday.
PSP - 1 - 1.5 Million or less. Japan could save it.
PSV - 1.5 - 2.0 Million, it's still too expensive and there still aren't huge games for it. (I never said there weren't games for it so don't freak.)



NintendoPie said:
DS - >1 Million.
3DS - 6.5 - 7.0 Million, the largest this holiday, it'll pick up a lot due to XL and Mario + last Holiday's Hit games.
Wii - 1.5 - 2.5 Million.
360 - 3.0 -3.5 Million, it'll fall by a little but get picked up some by Halo.
PS3 - 3.5 - 4.0 Million, it might become the new 360 this holiday.
PSP - 1 - 1.5 Million or less. Japan could save it.
PSV - 1.5 - 2.0 Million, it's still too expensive and there still aren't huge games for it. (I never said there weren't games for it so don't freak.)

And the WiiU will fail to sell anything at all? ;) Think you forgot about that one =)



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.