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Forums - General Discussion - 10 tech trends to watch for in 2012

rocketpig said:
Slimebeast said:

Interesting stuff. As an Apple hater I am sad to hear that Siri is a game-changer. Siri is some kind of voice recognition function, right? Is it more advanced than Kinect (or Microsofts vision for a nexgen Kinect)?

Now what about the bandwidth and iTV? Here in Sweden we have comparatively strong internet connections but with all the problems with my ISP (the biggest in the country) I dont think I could watch TV with good quality (10Mb, which may sound decent, but it's not a stable 10Mb and it disconnects quite often) and from what I've heard fast broadband to the masses in USA is even weaker. I don't know, maybe I'm from the stone age but it just sounds like internet-TV on a mass market basis is still a few years in the future.

I've said a million times but hating a company and wishing ill on them is folly, particularly a company like Apple. They have driven the smartphone market to where it is today. Everyone else has been playing catch-up. All they're doing is making Google, Microsoft, and RIM (lulz) work harder to release better products. Siri is merely an extension of that continuing trend. Within a year, we'll see everyone pushing to release a competitor for it, making all smartphones just a little bit smarter and easier to use. We're just getting to the point where Google is starting to push back, forcing Apple to improve in areas of iOS that they've let stagnate for far too long.

With compression and h264 codecs, you can have have a relatively slow internet connection and still stream 720p content. Here in the US, I have a 16Mb connection (real speeds of about 2MB) and I can stream high definition content just fine... in fact, I can stream two sources of HD content simultaneously (but just barely). Most people don't care about 1080p and can't tell the difference between it and 720p (outside of animation, I often struggle to see the difference). Internet connections are good enough now where most of the public can take advantage of hosting little or no local content in favor of streaming everything from an outside source.

PS. Note the difference between Megabyte (MB) and Megabit (Mb) in connections. A Megabit is 1/8th of a Megabyte.

I hate that Apple are so dominant and their fans so elitistic. Their dominance doesn't give enough room for everybody else. If they release iTV they're going to dominate the market and even Xbox TV might become an insignificant player. Hopefully I am wrong.

I buy your competition argument though. It's just sometimes hard to immediately see the advantages that come from competition.



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Slimebeast said:
I hate that Apple are so dominant and their fans so elitistic. Their dominance doesn't give enough room for everybody else. If they release iTV they're going to dominate the market and even Xbox TV might become an insignificant player. Hopefully I am wrong.

I buy your competition argument though. It's just sometimes hard to immediately see the advantages that come from competition.

I don't see Apple dominating the television space. I think they'll carve out a nice corner of the market for themselves and spur everyone else into action but the TV market isn't a new market they're creating like they did with tablets and, to an extent, smartphones.

In any case, I think they'll bring a lot of forward-thought to the market and finally create an environment that will cater to people like me. I have no interest in buying a cable package. I only watch a few network shows. What I want is an easy to use device that offers the content I want immediately at an affordable cost. Apple might be the only company in the world with the weight to get content providers to step in line and offer what the market wants instead of what they want the market to get.




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ImJustBayuum said:

http://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/10-tech-trends-to-watch-for-in-2012-1050007

1. Windows 8 revolution

This is the biggie, and not just because of Microsoft's enormous user base: Windows 8 is a dramatically different version of the world's most popular OS, with particular emphasis on tablets.

 

I see potential for Windows 8 devices to capture the market Blackberry should have ...

Essentially, a large portion of phones, tablets and notebooks are sold to people for business reasons and (currently) neither Apple nor Android are really doing a good job at targeting this audience. If well done, being able to have seemless integration between your portable devices and your business infastructure could help Microsoft dominate this market; but I don't see these devices being particularly popular with consumers.

I would expect Android to continue to grow in marketshare in consumer devices until it is the dominant OS across mobile platforms, and Apple's dedicated fanbase to stay loyal.

ImJustBayuum said:

2. Really good tablets

If 2011 was when the tablet market learned to walk, 2012 is when it'll learn to run.

The hardware is fine, what is lacking is software to make practical use of these tablets ... which will come in time

 

ImJustBayuum said:

3. Big names in big trouble

Some of tech's biggest firms face a rocky ride in the coming year: the Financial Times reports that the EU "plans to slam Google with a 400-plus page" statement of anti-trust objections before possibly embarking on legal action, while in the US the Federal Trade Commission has ordered Facebook to behave itself or face action. The EU's sniffing around Facebook too, with German regulators being a particular thorn in the social network's side.

Likely, but I suspect the companies that will be in trouble will (probably) be difficult to predict at this point in time ...

 

ImJustBayuum said:

4. TV continues to change

The lines between TV and PC will continue to blur in 2012.

 

100% not going to happen ...

Having worked for a company that has tried to get the big networks to see value in the internet for the past decade, until the networks are bankrupt or nearly bankrupt expect any integration between "computers" and television to be decades behind what could potentially happen.

 

ImJustBayuum said:

5. Voice input

We're loath to call this voice recognition, because it's bigger than that: natural language systems such as Apple's Siri are closer to virtual assistants or intelligent software agents than traditional computer voice recognition, not least because you're taking advantage of enormously powerful servers rather than the processing power of your device.

 

Voice input is still not good enough for the average person (people tend to find it impersonal and error prone), and expect people to continue to favour conventional systems for the next several years

 

ImJustBayuum said:

6. More and more Ultrabooks

We like ultrabooks, the super-thin and super-portable Apple-inspired notebooks from the likes of Acer, Asus and Toshiba. We're not so keen on their prices, though, so it's good to see DigiTimes predicting that prices will fall by as much as 10% in early 2012, bringing Ultrabooks into the sub-$1000 price bracket. We're expecting to see as many as fifty new Ultrabooks at January's CES extravaganza, not to mention new, slimline MacBook Pros from Apple later in the year.

Probably ...

 

ImJustBayuum said:

7. The end of boxed software

We predicted this one last year, but Windows 8 didn't arrive as early as we'd hoped: Windows 8 brings the app store model to the majority of the world's desktops, and between it and Apple's Mac App Store (not to mention the mobile app stores on iOS, Android and on Android forks such as Amazon's Kindle Fire) we're looking at the end of shrink-wrapped software boxes.

As a rough guestimate 10% of the market is completely ready to move to digital distribution only, and 75% want everything to remain on a physical format. While this will change over-time, expect boxed software to continue to be sold for at least another decade.

 

ImJustBayuum said:

8. Everything in the cloud

The rise of mobile devices means that we expect to get our stuff on any device, anywhere we happen to be - and more often than not, that means storing our stuff in the cloud.

 

Cloud has enormous potential, but (much like boxed software) people do not trust cloud services enough to abandon local services ...

 

ImJustBayuum said:

9. Mobile payments

There's more to mobile payments than near field communications (NFC) chips, although that's where most of the hype is currently focused. Ebay tells us that 10% of its UK payments are now made via mobile phones, while a recent survey by KPMG found that some 24% of people worldwide are making phone-based payments. Factor in the arrival of NFC chips in mobiles and NFC readers in more high street shops and it's clear that mobile money is going to be a big deal in 2012.

 

Mobile payments will grow, but (like the projected growth of online shopping in the 1990s) expect it to grow far slower than analysts project

 

ImJustBayuum said:

10. Censorship

While ISPs won't - and can't, under EU law - be forced to monitor everybody's online activities, demands for per-site censorship will soundtrack 2012. The BPI is already asking ISPs to block The Pirate Bay, while in the US the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and Protect IP Act could result in entire sites being blocked by ISPs, search engines, payment providers and advertising networks as a result of a few users' bad behaviour.

Such US legislation could have global effects, because most of the world's websites are registered in the US: while SOPA is opposed by the tech industry's biggest names, it's widely expected to become law in time for the New Year.

Related to #4 ...

The large media incumbents will do everything in their power to protect their existing business model and prevent anyone from making a viable alternative. Censorship and loss of individual rights are almost ensured ...



HappySqurriel said:
ImJustBayuum said:

5. Voice input

We're loath to call this voice recognition, because it's bigger than that: natural language systems such as Apple's Siri are closer to virtual assistants or intelligent software agents than traditional computer voice recognition, not least because you're taking advantage of enormously powerful servers rather than the processing power of your device.

 

Voice input is still not good enough for the average person (people tend to find it impersonal and error prone), and expect people to continue to favour conventional systems for the next several years


Have you used Siri yet? It's a HUGE step forward. And due to its server-side nature, it's only going to get smarter over time. Being able to say "wake me up at five in the morning" and have it set an alarm immediately (no further input needed) or say "I want pizza" and have it list you a half-dozen places to call 2 seconds later or any of the other crazy shit I've seen it do is a giant leap forward for voice tech. And it just launched. Where it will be in 12 months is anyone's guess.

Apple moved the bar forward (again). It's enough to make me strongly consider going back to iPhone unless Google steps it up before my contract expires.




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rocketpig said:
HappySqurriel said:
ImJustBayuum said:

5. Voice input

We're loath to call this voice recognition, because it's bigger than that: natural language systems such as Apple's Siri are closer to virtual assistants or intelligent software agents than traditional computer voice recognition, not least because you're taking advantage of enormously powerful servers rather than the processing power of your device.

 

Voice input is still not good enough for the average person (people tend to find it impersonal and error prone), and expect people to continue to favour conventional systems for the next several years


Have you used Siri yet? It's a HUGE step forward. And due to its server-side nature, it's only going to get smarter over time. Being able to say "wake me up at five in the morning" and have it set an alarm immediately (no further input needed) or say "I want pizza" and have it list you a half-dozen places to call 2 seconds later or any of the other crazy shit I've seen it do is a giant leap forward for voice tech. And it just launched. Where it will be in 12 months is anyone's guess.

Apple moved the bar forward (again). It's enough to make me strongly consider going back to iPhone unless Google steps it up before my contract expires.

The technology behind Siri is nothing new and we have been using similar voice recognition software on automated DA services at work for several years ... As long as you keep it to a limited number of well defined requests the results are decent but, even with very good results, automated voice recognition systems rank at or near the bottom of people's prefered ways to deal with anything.

 

I have no doubts that Siri is great for a limited number of use-cases, but I also have no doubts that Siri is (mostly) just smoke and mirrors hiding the limitations of the system.



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Yeah, the tech has been in use for awhile but (as usual) Apple found a way to apply it in a way that gets people to use the technology. People haven't used voice recognition software because it has been cumbersome and annoying and rarely works like you'd like it to work. But Siri has the potential to overcome that in time as it is refined (and even now, it's bloody good). Before casually dismissing it, I'd spend a day or two with a phone that has it equipped. The key is that in many cases, it's actually faster to use Siri than to go find whatever you're looking for yourself. That in itself is a huge hurdle to overcoming peoples' hesitation to use voice recognition.

A lot of people also casually dismissed capacitive touchscreens in 2006. We all know how that turned out once that tech was complemented by multi-touch, the app store, and gestures. In most cases, one thing doesn't entirely change a device. It's a combination of seemingly "meh" tech put together that makes something work. It's rumored that for iOS6, Apple is putting in place a facial recognition system. Add that in with Siri and they're well on their way to minimizing physical input into their devices for simple tasks. That's a pretty big step in where tech is leading us.




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