The Wii market share doesn't drop sharply for a dead console.

No I don't think so, I think Nintendo might be able to regain the lead temporarily for Christmas. At a 99$ price tag with LoZ:SS and Kirby plus the whole back catalog Nintendo has a good chance of over taking Microsoft at least for a little while. Maybe capture the market this winter, the problem is this really is Wii's last Hurrah, come winter 2012 WiiU will be on the market and Wii can't be sold cheaper then 100$. This will mean the very quick slaughter of Wii, Nintendo is not likely to release any big software on Wii next winter if any at all.

The question is can 360 hold off WiiU when it launched next year? Nintendo doesn't need Wii to be successful this winter, its damage control its only lessening the blow of 3DS's loss on every unit. Nintendo wants to launch fresh next year with WiiU and that will spell the beginning of a quick demise for Wii.

Although I think it would be a great feit if Nintendo over takes Microsoft this winter. With all the fire power 360 has had in the last two years Nintendo competing with less then a dozen heavy hitters against the best Microsoft/Sony and the third parties have to offer and coming out even near first is amazing!

So with that new model with the GC compatibility removed is going to have a price cut also? Is it going to be $99 now? I knew about the new model but I haven't heard about the price cut.

I suspect that Wii sales in Europe are being over tracked at this point. If I remember correctly even after last years Holidays were over Wii numbers got adjusted down. I think we will see that the Wii sales are not accelerating the way that VGC thinks they are. As for 360 due to shortages last year I expect Europe sales to be similar to last year.

What I dont know is if in Europe the 360 is getting the deals like it is in NA so far this year. Wii is not getting the deals in NA this year that it did last year and 360 is getting the kind of deals in NA that the Wii got last year.

Only mention of this so far is a BlackFriday deal at Walmart and Sams club.  Blue limited edition Wii for $99 without any games.  The thread below has all the Black Friday deals if you want to know what consoles are getting special deals.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=136237&page=1#

Yea, the no games part kind of blows.  It would have been a decent deal if they included two blue wm+ remotes.  The package doesn't really look good for someone that knows the value (I am assuming it also has dropped GC support) but to some of the mindless drones they will only see the $99.

I suppose you do have a point.  They could get the 99 dollar and buy a few Nintendo select games.