For starters, I don't think the PS3 will beat the Wii in 2007, I think going forward from that it is completely possible, but I just think Wii is on too much of a high wave with too many games coming for the rest of the year for that wave to stop this year. I believe the PS3 will surpass the 360 during 2008 but not 2007.
I don't know what you are looking at compared to me, but I don't know how you can say that it is doing well in ANY region so far. Gundam moved a few units but not enough to call it a bit jump. I don't believe there will be a jump in numbers for the USA in march. I hate to say it but I believe you will be disappointed with the March NPD no's.
A constant stream of games, alot more relly good games. Very good 1st party games will drive sales.
Its a game war... right.
I think of course it is a game war, but fundamentally there are SOME games that control which direction a lot of people go.
Your comment that the PS3 will sell 5 million WW in Nov/Dec is pretty massive... care to give me a breakdown on that? I think it is a little optimistic, but we'll see.
PS3 will really get going right for Xmas, 1st party heavy hitters like Lair, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, Killzone, Rachat and Clank, Uncharted, plus the support of the huge 3rd party games like GTA4, Assasins Creed and what not. There will be no shortage of games like right now.
the reason the 1s party games are so important for Ps3 is becasue well... most every one else has not clue what to do with the Cell, first party do. they dont give a rats ass about porting and tech specifications on anything else but PS3! 1st party games will differentiate the PS3 and show its superiority over the 360.
PS3 online will be the best, PSN is just the tiny start, Home will be a huge deal.... its a 3d youtube, many will eat this thing up. It will also make gaming with friends a hell of alot easier.
Price cut is coming, a late 2007 would be best to drive xmas sales.
Price cut is coming, of course a price cut is coming at some stage, it is corporate suicide to keep the price up for all of the consoles life, but I don't think the price cut is going to be during 2007, honestly I can't see Sony sustaining the extra losses. Think about the differences with the current hardware cost (even being lenient).
Currently say $130 loss per console (it's probably higher but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt and that they can lower costs this year).
Roughly 3 million sold WW currently that is a total lost of $390,000,000 and going by what your estimates are I would say you believe them to sell roughly 15 million total at the end of 2007. Total loss of $1,950,000,000 of console cost at the current price. Lets say what you say about 5 million sales in nov/dec comes true and they have dropped the price by $100 then, so they are making $190 loss per console (being fair that price of the hardware to produce will have gone down at least $40 over the year - remember i'm still being lenient).
The total cost of the first 10 mil is $1,300,000,000 and then total cost of the next 5 mil is $950,000,000 that's a total of $2,250,000,000 LOSS with a total sales base of 15 million units.
Current attach rate WW is roughly 2.6 which is a fairly accurate (historically) attachment rate, and allowing for 3 - 3.5 attach rate being REALLY generous for these 15 million units that gives a total games sale amount of 52,500,000 worldwide this year. Sony makes about $10 per game and therefore $525,000,000 in profit from the games that are sold. Leaving with total worldwide gaming sales for that year a loss of $1,725,000,000 with a price drop. Honestly I can't see Sony wearing that amount of money and I'm being HUGELY generous on total game sales AND the amount that Sony is wearing per unit.
Secondly , I think Home will also be a huge deal, but I don't believe it will be a 3d youtube or myspace, it will simply take TOO MUCH time to penetrate to those levels.
Lair, Heavinly Sword, Warhawk, Killzone, Ratchet and Clank, Uncharted, GTA4 and Assassins Creed are the games you claim to be huge and massive for the PS3 this year. I beg to differ about the majority of these games.
Aside from GTA4 NOTHING in this list is proven as a big seller especially at the current install of the console, and NONE of these are system pushing games that people who don't already own the console will buy. I'm sure most of them will be lapped up by PS3 owners, but those games aren't big enough or good enough to push hardware... GTA4 is an exception and I Assassins Creed is also an exception, HOWEVER they are multi platform and the 360 has a MUCH bigger user base and will chomp a big portion of those games total sales numbers. I can individually break down the sales expectations of these and then break that down even further on a history basis with hardware volume and attachment ratio of similar games in history, also taking into account percentage increase in sales.
Historically looking at the PS2 sales data and the speed and momentum of the console, it really started to pick up with the advent of three games, Gran Turismo, GTA3 and Final Fantasy (on a WW front). Two of those games are 2008 games which I have NO DOUBT will be the real beginning of the PS3's push for the top. But I think you're overly optimistic about 2007, those games are 'fill in games'.
Final Fantasy 13 / Versus, Metal Gear Solid 4 and Gran Turismo 5 hit.... nothing can stop this power house.
This is the year of the PS3, sales will REALLY ramp up in 2008, it really is just getting started at the moment, and when these big games hit then I also agree that thing will be looking up for the PS3, more exclusives will start to hit and more 1st party games will be coming, big titles and a price drop during 2008 will be the cleancher - hell what does 360 have after Halo 3 as a MASSIVE HUGE title? Nothing - PS3 has a huge bunch - FF13, MGS4, GT5 they are the killers and as long as they stay PS3 exclusives then the PS3 is not going anywhere.
All i'm really showing in this post is that PS3 is not going to control 2007, it's got nothing this year. Absolutely nothing - you'll see what I mean when you see the NPD data on Thursday. But 2008 is a different story, and the great thing about PS3 is the potential, which is why it's not selling great right now, but it WILL when the potential starts to be realised (which is 2008).
People who say that PS3 can't do better graphics than 360 (really the only thing that will set them apart) are kidding themselves, PS3 hasn't been taken advantage of yet and the Cell Processor and development structure allows for longtime optimisation, it was the same situation with the PS2, HUGELY powerful but took time for developers to get used to it, this meant that constantly BETTER looking games appeared as the life of the PS2 progressed, I'm sure Sony want a similar occurrence for the PS3 (rather than all games looking great and the same like on 360 and with GC and Xbox last gen).
The biggest problem for PS3 is not competing with 360, it's that it isn't directly fighting for the Wii market, and I don't think they can without a HUGELY lower price.