I'm hoping Ron Paul on both accounts.

I bet the one who get the most vote will win the Republican primary
I bet the one who gets the most electoral vote will win the 2012 Presidential election.

That's who i think will be the next president.

Its too early to say who will win the primary. It seems that support for Romney has just about topped out - since Huckabee, Trump and Daniels said they wouldn't run, he has had a 0 point increase in the polls, which is pretty bad for the #1 candidate.

My HOPE is that Ron Paul, or my favorite, Gary Johnson would win. Paul is placing in the #3 spot on most polls (behind Romney and usually an unannounced candidate like Palin or Guliani).

Herman Cain is also screaming up the charts, going from a nobody to running in 4th behind Paul - mostly due to him winning the Fox debate. Cain is probably the 3rd best candidate, IMO.

My belief is that if the GOP runs any of the three I mentioned - Cain, Paul or Johnson - they can win. They have the values and principles to win the presidency. Romney is just awful (Romneycare in Massachusettes), Palin has as much executive experience as our current pretender-in-chief, and most others are just awful as well.

Realistically, unless the economy does a 180 (and I think there is a 1 in 20 chance of that happening), Obama is poised to lose. He's done nothing positive for this country, and if a half-assed Republican candidate is fielded, they would have an absolute field day with Obama in the debates. Stimulus, auto bailout, Obamacare, unemployment, 3 wars, and the worst foreign policy in decades makes him a 1-term president who makes Carter look like freakin' Albert Einstein. Until Osama was killed, Obama's poll ratings were in the dumps and sliding - and there is very little hope they will improve from here on out.

The only way the GOP can screw this up is if Romney wins. He would get torn up just as much as Obama, and I know few republicans that can get behind that turd. If he is nominated, I'll throw away my affiliation with the Republicans and vote 3rd party (although I am voting 3rd party now more and more).

Look up Ron Paul and then realize why this country needs him.

Few problems with your assumptions:

1. You equate current polls of Obama to that of Bush in 2004. Do not forget that we have a year and a half to go before the election. According to the charts you presented, Bush was about 10% ahead of Obama (about 60% to 51%) aligning the timeframes.
2. You use Obama's post-OBL spike data as a likely indicator of favorability - this is likely to change in the next month (and most recent polling from Rasmeussen has a leading indicator that he's gonna start dropping soon). Look at the RCP trending before the death of OBL. Prior to the death of OBL, Obama was at a 45% approval rating - lower than ANY point of Bush's first term.
3. Obama was a nobody 9 months before the Democratic primaries, too. Just because you don't know of any of the three candidates doesn't make them any less qualified (and all three have vastly more experience than Obama does). If anything, Obama proves that you can be a nobody and become president - he did it with 2 years of federal experience. Paul has ~30 years of federal experience (Congress), Johnson has 8 years of executive experience (Governor) and Cain was a federal reserve chairman and CEO of a major business. 

There are still a lot of 'ifs' surrounding the primaries, but I really don't see any bright spot in Obama's polling outside of the OBL bump. Lets not forget that Bush Sr. had a big Gulf War bump too - he still lost his re-election bid.

Interestingly enough, research shows that Bush Sr. didn't lose because of Perot. Perot actually pulled more Democrats than Republicans. Bush lost because of Clinton.

At any rate, the primaries are far from decided, and IMO Romney isn't going to win with his horrible record. The next debate is in a little over a week, and I think he's going to show himself more inept than ever.

who is my wet dream for a candidate?--- Mike Huckabee (he is soo well spoken and wise, he can win any debate, and his policies rock, unfortunately hes not running. but how the hell did he lose to John McCain, he was awful)
other dreams--- Marco Rubio, Chris Christie

If i could have Ron Paul's economic policies mixed with, say a Mike Huckabee. that would be the best candidate of all time, and would win in a heart beat.

who do i not want--- Mit Romney, Newt, and other POLITICIANS who wont stick to their guns. Romney care anyone?

So My choice is..... Michelle Bachman. A true moral, Constitutional Conservative, that will Stick to her guns. She wont waver at all, and she is much more electable than Sarah Palin.

Now for VP, we need Herman Cain, (i'd rather have that one tea party black guy, the one with the earring that often appears on FOX business). that way we would have 2 minorities. Woman and a black guy. So democrats, and feminist would have to vote Republican.. right?!, right? hmm maybe not, you guys dont think dems and feminazi's are hypocrites do you. Dont you know its the Republicans, conservatives that are racists, thats what we are supposed to think, right? especially those tea partiers, err well thats what the media tells me. on an unrelated not Senate Majority leader LBJ says hi.

My big problem with Herman Cain is that he supports central economic planning the Federal Reserve. That tells me he would not do anything to help our current economic problems.

It will probably be Mitt Romney, with Huckabee out of the race.

I dont think it will matter though, I see Obama winning no matter which candidate it is.

I think it will be boring Mitt Romeny.

Which I will find amusing because then it will be Bush VS Kerry 2.

With Obama playing the role of Bush.