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Forums - Gaming Discussion - My Predictions For Next Gen (Home Consoles)

Was going to make these threads a few days ago, but I was too lazy.    Anyway, here's my general predictions for what will happen with all consoles, including handhelds.  This thread is for...

Home Consoles

Nintendo is the only one who has officially announced their next console, scheduled for a mid-late 2012 release.  One of the main things that I see working against Nintendo is that next gen ALL 3 console makers will have motion controls out of the gate next gen, so unlike this gen and regardless of what new feature is added, the Wii successor won't seem as unique as the Wii did in 2006.  Something that may not bring back as many "casual" gamers as the Wii garnered.  We also have had rumors circulating that the next Wii will be slightly more powerful than the PS3, ones that may be backed up by "leaked" photos that may show Nintendo promoting that Xbox 360 games can be easily ported to it.  If this is true, than I see it more like Nintendo playing catchup to this gen instead of moving onto the next one.  Something that will not win over hardcore gamers from the 360 or PS3 at all.  It will also hurt them if the 360 Elite and PS3, which may have graphics close to the Wii2, drop to $199 around its release.  As for the rumors of havig a HD screens in every controller, as well as be able to play games on them, I highly doubt that.  I mean not only would that drive up the cost of the controllers incredibly, as well as possibly hurt the need for the 3DS.  Then there's the competition, which brings us to...

The Xbox "720."  I think MS has 2 courses of action.  One would be to hurry along development and testing of their next console so they can release in 2012 with Nintendo.  I don't think MS will do this, however, not with what happened with the 360 early on.  MS may be able to survive one RROD fiasco, but 2 would destroy any future they may have in the console market.  So, I see them announcing their next console in 2012, with a mid-late 2013 launch.  A 2012 announcement, especially at E3, could hurt Nintendo's next console, but I'll get to that in the Sony section.  Now, while MS has definitely made the Xbox a bigger brand this time around, it still hasn't become bigger than the Playstation brand, with the PS3 having more momentum towards the end of this gen than the 360.  I also think that the 360's success this gen is more due to the mistakes of Sony in 06-07, mainly due to price and lack of games, than any strengths that MS may have had.  Which brings us to...

The PS4.  I believe the PS4 will have a similar release window as the 720, E3 announcement in 2012 and launch in 2013.  Now some of these next points also go for the 720, mainly price, power, and E3 announcement.  Price and power actually go hand in hand with the E3 announcement.  What I mean by this is If the Wii2 isn't launching until mid-late 2012, and at E3 Sony and MS can match or come close to its price, while offering much more muscle under the hood, Nintendo is going to have a tough time convincing people to go with them this time around.  I believe Sony can release the PS4 for ~$400, as Sony will probably stick with Blu-ray, which will have dropped in price greatly by the time the PS4 is released.  I also think they will be going with an evolved form of the Cell, which again will be cheaper than its first form.

So with prices around the same, people will be looking at features and power as their deciding factor.  With the 720 and PS4 probably being around the same power, I believe the Playstation brand will come out on top of all 3, though it won't be as dominant as the PS2 was 2 gens ago.

Thoughts?



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Nintendo is in a Identity crisis

Sony has so many products, at this point it doesn't  looks like the right hand , knows what the left hand is doing.

 

I think M$ got something real big, to announce  at E3 2011.    And its going to blow all our minds away.

 

 



Albion said:

Nintendo is in a Identity crisis

Sony has so many products, at this point it doesn't  looks like the right hand , knows what the left hand is doing.

 

I think M$ got something real big, to announce  at E3 2011.    And its going to blow all our minds away.

 

 

What do you think MS is announcing?  A new console?



I agree with most of your points but i dont think Sony will release the PS4 untill 2014 to be honest. I also think the PS4 will be alot more stronger than the PS3 and if Sony has learned anything this gen it will also be very well secured. Also i dont think Sony will use the orginal Blu-ray format for the PS4 next gen. History has proven this. I am thinking they will more than likely use BDXL which is basically a double sided/double layered blu-ray disc compressed with slightly more memory when maxed out.(100/128GB) (If you wanna know more just search BDXL on google) 

PS1 Disc Format = CD-ROM

PS2 Disc Format = DVD

PS3 Disc Foramt = Blu-ray

PS4 Disc Format = BDXL or Blu-ray XL

As for M$. Unless they start buying GOOD first party studios and making new IP's i honestly dont see them surviving next gen. Kinect was not as big as i thought it would be and they cant keep relaying on Halo to give them good exclusive sales. COD will more than likely be a dead or dying franchise by then and the FPS genre in general will not be as big as it is now.(which is one of the main reason's they have succeed very well in america this gen compared to the gen before).There console will more than likely come out mid 2013 and god knows how much XBL will be by then...

As for Nintendo i agree with you 100%. I think the only reason why Nintendo is even making a HD console is so they can try to get into the hardcore market which i dont think they will succeed in doing. Sony and M$ have already established a very well drivin audience and unless Nintendo does something unbelievable crazy for the good i dont think they will succeed at getting the hardcore gamers. Though some of the old IP's like Street Fighter and Resident Evil may finally see a return into there home console market.

 

Overall i see Sony regaining its crown in the console market next gen in 1st with Microsoft staying in 2nd and Nintendo in 3rd.

I also think NGP will beatout the 3DS in the handheld market since it has alot more features and power than the 3DS. And the general public looks at the 3DS as a DS with 3D which unfortunally is not true. 

:)



Ya   a new consul

 

I think they should launch in 2012 at the same time then Nintendo.   Don't you think that would piss on everyones parade?

It would hurt the PS3 big time. 
And it would steal any thunder Nintendo may have gained.

I don't know for a fact they will. but. it would be a shame for them to let this slip bye.

 

Don't you think ?

 



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Albion said:

Ya   a new consul

 

I think they should launch in 2012 at the same time then Nintendo.   Don't you think that would piss on everyones parade?

It would hurt the PS3 big time. 
And it would steal any thunder Nintendo may have gained.

I don't know for a fact they will. but. it would be a shame for them to let this slip bye.

 

Don't you think ?

 

It definitely would hurt Nintendo's launch.  The only problem, though, is that it is going to take a lot of power to create the next gen's graphics, which in turn is going to take a lot of planning, and testing, to deal with heat from the initial larger chipsets.  This is why I think MS will wait til 2013 to launch.  They can not, and will not, survive another RROD fiasco.

@ ThePS3News

I doubt Sony will give MS a year headstart, and even worse, Nintendo a whole 2 years headstart.  I'm pretty confident in 2013 being the launch year.  As for BDXL, they may go with it.  But I have a feeling that Sony will wait one more gen to move to a new format, since Blu-ray sales are still contining to grow, and I think having 3 different formats (DVD, Blu-ray, and BDXL) will confuse many customers.  Plus, BDXL isn't extremely neccessary since Pioneer has already shown off a 400GB Blu-ray disc that is playable on current players after a FW update.



Yeah I don't see Microsoft being able to compete for the crown with them failing to gain a significant share in Japan and most non-English speaking territories. 

One thing that just came to mind is that if Nintendo are "promoting that 360 games can be easily ported to their next console" -  could possibly signal that the PC, Xbox and Nintendo will be easy to cross-platform develop games for, leaving Sony in a precarious position with their different cell architecture, which they won't want to drop and lose all PS3 backwards compatibility.  With development budgets set to skyrocket again, will they want to position themselves as the 'extra expense'?

Maybe I'm the weird one - but I don't think the mass consumer knows or cares about 'first party studios', when Microsoft still gets plenty of PC game crossovers and buys exclusives/timed exclusivity.  I think the forum dwellers harp on this point, most equipped with a gaming PC and are a very vocal minority.  



Fumanchu said:

Yeah I don't see Microsoft being able to compete for the crown with them failing to gain a significant share in Japan and most non-English speaking territories. 

One thing that just came to mind is that if Nintendo are "promoting that 360 games can be easily ported to their next console" -  could possibly signal that the PC, Xbox and Nintendo will be easy to cross-platform develop games for, leaving Sony in a precarious position with their different cell architecture, which they won't want to drop and lose all PS3 backwards compatibility.  With development budgets set to skyrocket again, will they want to position themselves as the 'extra expense'?

Maybe I'm the weird one - but I don't think the mass consumer knows or cares about 'first party studios', when Microsoft still gets plenty of PC game crossovers and buys exclusives/timed exclusivity.  I think the forum dwellers harp on this point, most equipped with a gaming PC and are a very vocal minority.  

Well, I think Sony will make the advanced Cell easier to develop on.  Kinda like how they made the NGP's architecture easy to develop on.  So, I don't think that should really become a hurdle for it.  I mean even with the Cell this gen, the PS3 has started to get very good support after '08.

And you are right, the mass doesn't know or care about first parties.  They do care, however, when they see a game/ad and on the box/tv it says "Only for the ___."  Which, for the most part, those games are made by first party studios.



can BDXL be played on regular BD players? If not then Sony will really be shooting itself in the foot- people are just now starting to upgrade to blu ray at an extremely slow pace.



thismeintiel said:
Fumanchu said:

Yeah I don't see Microsoft being able to compete for the crown with them failing to gain a significant share in Japan and most non-English speaking territories. 

One thing that just came to mind is that if Nintendo are "promoting that 360 games can be easily ported to their next console" -  could possibly signal that the PC, Xbox and Nintendo will be easy to cross-platform develop games for, leaving Sony in a precarious position with their different cell architecture, which they won't want to drop and lose all PS3 backwards compatibility.  With development budgets set to skyrocket again, will they want to position themselves as the 'extra expense'?

Maybe I'm the weird one - but I don't think the mass consumer knows or cares about 'first party studios', when Microsoft still gets plenty of PC game crossovers and buys exclusives/timed exclusivity.  I think the forum dwellers harp on this point, most equipped with a gaming PC and are a very vocal minority.  

Well, I think Sony will make the advanced Cell easier to develop on.  Kinda like how they made the NGP's architecture easy to develop on.  So, I don't think that should really become a hurdle for it.  I mean even with the Cell this gen, the PS3 has started to get very good support after '08.

And you are right, the mass doesn't know or care about first parties.  They do care, however, when they see a game/ad and on the box/tv it says "Only for the ___."  Which, for the most part, those games are made by first party studios.

Yes the PS3 has very good support, not denying that at all.  Though we're coming from a 2-for-1 development/market with the PC/360, to possibly next generation developers taking pretty much the same code and compiling it for 3 out of 4 systems.  If this is the case, Sony will want to make sure that they come flying out of the gates with sales.