All right guys, this is simple. Predict how much you expect Metroid: Other M to sell.
People often refer to Metroid as one of Nintendo's "big 3", but that's not really true. In terms of sales, it's always been on Nintendo's third tier, and on the low end of that - every time Kirby comes to town, he tends to kick Samus's ass, for instance. Expectations here should not be ridiculous.
We'll be putting down predictions for three milestones. All milestones are launch-aligned, so we'll have to wait until all regions where it will see release have seen release. The three milestones are First Week, 13 Weeks (three months), and Lifetime. Not LTD - that's life-to-date - but Lifetime.
I'll add people to this here table as we go on.
Here is a list of what different Metroid games have sold, as a point of reference (not all numbers are complete): http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Metroid
Here are my predictions:
FW: 400k
13W: 1.2 million
Lifetime: 2.1 million
Yes, I am expecting it to be only the third Metroid game to break 2 million copies sold, which would make it the third-biggest game in the series. Perhaps this is bold, but I don't think it too bold.
The Table:
Name | First Week | 13 Weeks | Lifetime |
Khuutra | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | 2,100,000 |
andremop | 300,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,800,000 |
Boutros | 350,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,550,000 |
morenoingrato | 450,000 | 1,300,000 | 2,500,000 |
Mr Khan | 500,000 | 1,500,000 | 2,500,000 |
MrT-Tar | 500,000 | 1,400,000 | 3,000,000 |
Rhonin the wizard | 450,000 | 800,000 | 1,200,000 |
Tayne | 375,000 | 850,000 | 1,600,000 |
Demotruk | 350,000 | 600,000 | 1,000,000 |
jarrod | 425,000 | 1,210,000 | 2,450,000 |
Vas-y | 320,000 | 730,000 | 1,300,000 |
Ninpanda | 360,000 | 950,000 | 1,670,000 |
KylieDog | 325,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,700,000 |
Mya-04 | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | 2,000,000 |
darthdevidem01 | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | 2,100,000 |
Machina | 380,000 | 1,020,000 | 2,000,000 |
ninty_shareholder64 | 250,000 | 700,000 | 1,500,000 |
RolStoppable | 300,000 | 500,000 | 650,000 |
Metallicube | 350,000 | 800,000 | 1,100,000 |
oliist | 354,000 | 917,000 | 1,510,000 |
Blacksaber | 399,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,800,000 |
archbrix | 400,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,650,000 |
Pineapple | 355,000 | 918,000 | 1,520,000 |
blunty51 | 550,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,500,000 |
Average | 385,125 | 1,020,625 | 1,737,500 |
Total predictions so far: 24
ACTUAL FIRST WEEK NUMBERS: 284k
We as a community were off by slightly more than 100k. For the sake of comparison, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption managed 367k.
Congrats to andremop and Rol, you guys were the closest listed predictions on this one - though you overshot it somewhat. Special mention to ninty_shareholder64, who was the only person to actually underestimate first week numbers (but not by much).