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Forums - Sales Discussion - Metroid: Other M sales predictions thread

All right guys, this is simple. Predict how much you expect Metroid: Other M to sell.

People often refer to Metroid as one of Nintendo's "big 3", but that's not really true. In terms of sales, it's always been on Nintendo's third tier, and on the low end of that - every time Kirby comes to town, he tends to kick Samus's ass, for instance. Expectations here should not be ridiculous.

We'll be putting down predictions for three milestones. All milestones are launch-aligned, so we'll have to wait until all regions where it will see release have seen release. The three milestones are First Week, 13 Weeks (three months), and Lifetime. Not LTD - that's life-to-date - but Lifetime.

I'll add people to this here table as we go on.

Here is a list of what different Metroid games have sold, as a point of reference (not all numbers are complete): http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Metroid

Here are my predictions:

FW: 400k
13W: 1.2 million
Lifetime: 2.1 million

Yes, I am expecting it to be only the third Metroid game to break 2 million copies sold, which would make it the third-biggest game in the series. Perhaps this is bold, but I don't think it too bold.

The Table:

Name First Week 13 Weeks Lifetime
Khuutra 400,000 1,200,000 2,100,000
andremop 300,000 1,100,000 1,800,000
Boutros 350,000 1,100,000 1,550,000
morenoingrato 450,000 1,300,000 2,500,000
Mr Khan 500,000 1,500,000 2,500,000
MrT-Tar 500,000 1,400,000 3,000,000
Rhonin the wizard 450,000 800,000 1,200,000
Tayne 375,000 850,000 1,600,000
Demotruk 350,000 600,000 1,000,000
jarrod 425,000 1,210,000 2,450,000
Vas-y 320,000 730,000 1,300,000
Ninpanda 360,000 950,000 1,670,000
KylieDog 325,000 1,100,000 1,700,000
Mya-04 400,000 1,200,000 2,000,000
darthdevidem01 400,000 1,200,000 2,100,000
Machina 380,000 1,020,000 2,000,000
ninty_shareholder64 250,000 700,000 1,500,000
RolStoppable 300,000 500,000 650,000
Metallicube 350,000 800,000 1,100,000
oliist 354,000 917,000 1,510,000
Blacksaber 399,000 1,100,000 1,800,000
archbrix 400,000 1,000,000 1,650,000
Pineapple 355,000 918,000 1,520,000
blunty51 550,000 1,300,000 1,500,000
Average 385,125 1,020,625 1,737,500

Total predictions so far: 24

ACTUAL FIRST WEEK NUMBERS: 284k

We as a community were off by slightly more than 100k. For the sake of comparison, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption managed 367k.

Congrats to andremop and Rol, you guys were the closest listed predictions on this one - though you overshot it somewhat. Special mention to ninty_shareholder64, who was the only person to actually underestimate first week numbers (but not by much).



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First week: 300.000

13 weeks: 1.100.000

Lifetime: 1.800.000

I hope for more, looks like a revolution.

Btw, Nintendo big 3 is not about sales. Or else not even Zelda would be in it. Wii Sports, Brain Age and Nintendogs are not the next big 3.



I really don't know but I want to guess.

FW: 350k

13 Weeks: 1.1 million

LT: 1.55 million



First week: 450k

13 weeks: 1.3 million

Lt: 2.5 mil



I'm never entirely good at guessing these things, but i think there'll be a stronger push in Japan that should kick it a decent space above what we can consider the baseline for Metroid (Prime 3), so i'll go with 500k week one, 2.5 million lifetime, with 1.5 of that coming in the first 13 weeks.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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First Week: 500k

13 Weeks: 1.4m

Lifetime: 3m

 

I know these sound high, but I'm optimistic because the one place that has let down Metroid sales is Japan and not only is Other M more geared towards a Japanese audience than the Prime games but is being developed by a popular Japanese developer.




First week: 450k

13 Weeks:  800k

Lifetime: 1.2 million



MrT-Tar said:

First Week: 500k

13 Weeks: 1.4m

Lifetime: 3m

 

I know these sound high, but I'm optimistic because the one place that has let down Metroid sales is Japan and not only is Other M more geared towards a Japanese audience than the Prime games but is being developed by a popular Japanese developer.

You're expecting it to slel more than any other Metroid game, even after Metroid Prime was so heavily bundled?



First Week:  375K

13 Weeks: 850K

Lifetime: 1.6 million




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I'm thinking 1.5 million lifetime.