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Forums - Sony Discussion - Why people are overestimating the Wii's life time sales

Supply constrained... That's a phrase tossed around much here lately.
I played the Wii, and I can honestly say that I enjoyed it (Wii Sports was on)... for a few hours.
Since then, I've not played it ever again.
I get so frustrated sometimes on these forums of all the people who overestimate the console market, some have claimed that the Wii could move 60 million units the first year if it had the supply! Madness...
It is not built to have a vast lifecycle, so there's no way the lifetime sales will be as gigantic as many claim, do you people seriously believe a console can move 50-60 million units every year for 3-4 years or even longer?
Those who make these claims call themselves well versed in videogame history and knowledge, but anyone who is well versed would see that we have THREE strong contenders this gen instead of one, which leaves a very slim chance that any of them will win the race by an extreme amount.

The market is a big flux and can change basically overnight, and I think it will next year. I'll be happy to admit my mistake if doesn't however!
I wish everyone would be a bit less brazen and full of themselves and open to other inputs and angles sometimes.
I mean, I love these forums, but the Wii church thing has gotten plain ludicrous!



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Mummelmann said:
Supply constrained... That's a phrase tossed around much here lately.
I played the Wii, and I can honestly say that I enjoyed it (Wii Sports was on)... for a few hours.
Since then, I've not played it ever again.
I get so frustrated sometimes on these forums of all the people who overestimate the console market, some have claimed that the Wii could move 60 million units the first year if it had the supply! Madness...
It is not built to have a vast lifecycle, so there's no way the lifetime sales will be as gigantic as many claim, do you people seriously believe a console can move 50-60 million units every year for 3-4 years or even longer?
Those who make these claims call themselves well versed in videogame history and knowledge, but anyone who is well versed would see that we have THREE strong contenders this gen instead of one, which leaves a very slim chance that any of them will win the race by an extreme amount.

The market is a big flux and can change basically overnight, and I think it will next year. I'll be happy to admit my mistake if doesn't however!
I wish everyone would be a bit less brazen and full of themselves and open to other inputs and angles sometimes.
I mean, I love these forums, but the Wii church thing has gotten plain ludicrous!

 There have been generations with more than three and yet one console wins by a large margin.

 

How is Wii not built for a long lifespan, hardware doesn't seel consoles, if it did PS2 would have lost last gen, and DS would be losing to PSP 

 

The market has never shifted from a console winning to losing in the way you seem to be implying that the Wii will, sorry but there is no precedent for your belief



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

takeru51 said:
darendt said:
I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.

It seems that your problem is that you approached it as a novelty, not a system. I never thought there was any novelty to it, and I seem to still have lots of fun with mine... So do most people it seems.


I still have fun with it, just as I had fun with my Gamecube before it.  I was actually going into it with a " This is a pretty weak console" attitude. But it has proven me wrong. It does have some very interesting controls and the 2 games that I have are fun games. My kids all love it, and thats why I purchased it in the first place, its just that for me, now that I have played it.....quite a bit actually.....it just strikes me as not having a whole lot of replay ability. This may sound contradicting, but I probably wouldnt be playing as much if my kids didnt want me to. We will see though, maybe it will grow on me as I continue to play it with my kids and experience more games.



If you like Nintendo games, you shouldn't care about lifetime sales because Nintendo has shown that they are profitable with as little as a 20 million installed base and so as long as lifetime > 20 million they will continue to make the "core" games you love.



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Game_boy said:
If you like Nintendo games, you shouldn't care about lifetime sales because Nintendo has shown that they are profitable with as little as a 20 million installed base and so as long as lifetime > 20 million they will continue to make the "core" games you love.

 Yeah, but I want to see Nintendo turn gaming into a true mainstream media, something that everyone does at least once in a while



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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it will most likely end 55%wii and the rest ps3/360



darendt said:
takeru51 said:
darendt said:
I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.

It seems that your problem is that you approached it as a novelty, not a system. I never thought there was any novelty to it, and I seem to still have lots of fun with mine... So do most people it seems.


I still have fun with it, just as I had fun with my Gamecube before it.  I was actually going into it with a " This is a pretty weak console" attitude. But it has proven me wrong. It does have some very interesting controls and the 2 games that I have are fun games. My kids all love it, and thats why I purchased it in the first place, its just that for me, now that I have played it.....quite a bit actually.....it just strikes me as not having a whole lot of replay ability. This may sound contradicting, but I probably wouldnt be playing as much if my kids didnt want me to. We will see though, maybe it will grow on me as I continue to play it with my kids and experience more games.


Consoles don't have replay value -- games do. If you bought it for your kids, and the games aren't very interesting to you, maybe it's because you bought games aimed at little kids? Just a thought. [edit: I love Marble Mania, but if I played it for a week straight I bet I would be sick of it ... well, maybe not, but I would sympathize with anyone who was.]

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why are you undersetmeing the wiis life time salses



leo-j said:
MontanaHatchet said:
You're basically asking why the site is in love with Nintendo...

 

The site loves nintendo because they have never played a ps3.

 I have played both PS3, and 360 and own a Wii. I still prefer Nintendo games, the only thing i like better is their online for 360. I hate the controllers for the PS3 and 360 because I am a lefty even with inverted controls i can not do that well. I just enjoy how every game i have for the Wii is so different. I do not like sports games like madden and do not own an hdtv and do not plan on making my console as the media hub therefore a wii is the best for me. 360 games too me seem very similar, the PS3 doesnt have enough games yet for me. The price point of a 20% nominal increase for games on the PS3 and 360 with a real price increase of 12% if you include two years starting from 360 launch is too high considering Wii games still cost $50 USD and can have just as equal an amazing experience, quoting SMG now. Especially because i now can not live without SMG. lol



"Like you know"

The Wii may eventually catch up to the PS2's lifetime numbers, though I don't think any console will come close to achieving the dominance of the PS2, which was a once-in-history sort of event. It will take awhile, though, because Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Russia, and the Euro-periphery (Eastern Europe, Turkey, Maghreb) - a.k.a. half of the human race - are finally becoming game consumers. They can't afford HDTVs just yet - some regions are getting close, but it will take 2 or 3 more years - so the mass market will be SD-compatible machines like PS2s and, once the price comes down, the Wii. (This is why Microsoft made a terrible mistake by dumping the Xbox, instead of reengineering the size and costs out of it). But the price of the Wii is still too high: it needs to be $129 or lower to compete with the PS2.