Squilliam said:
I have to disagree somewhat on the description 'open'. Android itself is not significantly different to iOS in terms of its openness outside of Flash. Whether the source code itself is free or the operating system is given away, the way Android and iOS operate are near identical. Whilst both devices can work through the open internet they mainly use the internet as a network through which internal downloaded applications access the internet. Because of this similarity I doubt that Apple will be relegated to a small segment of the market. Applications will continue to be ported to various different platforms as theres as much difference between Android phones as there is between Android and Apple. This isn't the PC market where one Windows can rule them all.
Just because the video market hasn't been canibalised yet, doesn't mean it isn't happening. It was simply significantly cheaper to solve the distribution issues for files which are six orders of magnitude smaller than video files first. It doesn't mean that the same won't apply to video distribution as well. You can store 5,000 songs on an Iphone 8GB but you can only store between 2-10 movies. So the difference is that the movies have to be able to be streamed on demand and we're simply not there yet. By 2015 my house is slated to have 100mbps fibre so we will be there soon.
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Two answers to the bolded.
1) The source code being released under Apache license, and the software platform being available for free means that everyone can use it and tailor it to their device.The underlying hardware differences are relegated to abstraction layers of the SDK, thus the porting between Android devices is trivial compared to porting from iPhone to Android and viceversa. It's the PC versus Mac again, only this time the OS is free... do you really think that Apple will be able to contain the tide of Android devices when everyone will want a smartphone, but not at that price?
2) It's not about the bandwidth alone. Music and videos are simply consumed according to very different patterns. People pay for music, but listens to it again and again, so they want to buy their music. At the same time many people will rent most movies and just watch them once at a lower cost, and only buy very few selected titles.
I own a substantial movie collection because I'm a cinephile, but I'm in the minority. Do you know anyone today who likes to see their movies again and again -as I do- and is happy to download them in the hundreds and nurse the multi-terabyte hard disk arrays on which they are stored? Or alternatively that is happy to have hundreds of movies stored somewhere in a server for streaming and needing a permanent and reliable connection?
Digital distribution will cannibalize physical media for video content outside the renting market only when technology will provide a reliable and easy to handle client-side storage solution, unless perfect bandwidth conditions are attained everywhere you might want to consume your data.