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Locked: Nexgenwars.com debunked

Forums - General Discussion - Nexgenwars.com debunked

Some person went out of their own way to make this silly video about nexgenwars.com. Even though it was most likely known worldwide but, only for a few fanatical xbox fanboys that those numbers are most likely inaccurate. I found some of his comments kind of stupid: one was about the age of the creator of the site but, some of his positions on this were actually kind of correct (if you look at the code). It seems as if he used basic programming (first year in computer science stuff). Very easy to read the code. Here is the link

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Cx3zVUdBxB0



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So basically, the site continually increases the sales figures, based on the most recent increments presumably, and constantly updates the site with a new estimate.  I don't see what the problem is. I mean, it's obvious from the graph on the frontpage that the numbers are corrected when sales figures are actually avaliable, otherwise it does what it says on the tin; gives an up to date estimate of sales figures. 



The problem is when he does manually correct the numbers they are still far off and in support of the xbox no doubt. I just checked out that joke of a site and the new site update looks horrible with firefox, konqueror and opera.



Think of it this way. Lets say he made a site counting the human population. So he sets the site to 6.8 billion and sets the numbers to increase by 32,000 every day. What's the problem there?  The problem is where did he get either of those numbers from?

Essentially the stie is just some numbers pulled from who knows where, with a counter to make it look like they're actually following sales.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

I used to spend a lot of time there (before I came here :>).

I don't mind the "counter" system, as long as there is some smarts behind it. If it just is a linear interpolation between last/next figures - I think its pointless. Better to have a "Updated on ....", with a fixed set of figures.

If he took into account the relative times in different countries (not many units sold in the US overnight!), weekends, holidays (etc) - which wouldn't be *that* hard to do - I wouldn't have minded it too much. The problem with the current system (updated every minute, with exactly the same increments) is that it is *obviously* wrong.

 It makes sense for the population (for example), as the time that children are born (around the world) could be fairly evenly distributed (or you grab some stats, and weight the figures based on the times in each country, etc). Makes less sense when the majority of units are purchased from retail stores (which are only open a few hours every day).



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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stof said:

Think of it this way. Lets say he made a site counting the human population. So he sets the site to 6.8 billion and sets the numbers to increase by 32,000 every day. What's the problem there? The problem is where did he get either of those numbers from?

Essentially the stie is just some numbers pulled from who knows where, with a counter to make it look like they're actually following sales.


 But you have no proof that he's not altered the update figures based on sales trends between the last official sales figures. Whilst this inaccurate simply on the basis that life never works like that, it's still a statistically viable estimate, and the mere fact that it's updated 24/7to reflect an updated estimate means that it is more accurate than the other method; leaving the values at verified sales figures for extended periods of time.

As for the whole 'pulled numbers from who knows where' issue, that's merely an issue with the lack of transparency to his sales data collection, and a problem that it could also be argued that VGChartz suffers from.



Markusdragon said:
stof said:

Think of it this way. Lets say he made a site counting the human population. So he sets the site to 6.8 billion and sets the numbers to increase by 32,000 every day. What's the problem there? The problem is where did he get either of those numbers from?

Essentially the stie is just some numbers pulled from who knows where, with a counter to make it look like they're actually following sales.


But you have no proof that he's not altered the update figures based on sales trends between the last official sales figures. Whilst this inaccurate simply on the basis that life never works like that, it's still a statistically viable estimate, and the mere fact that it's updated 24/7to reflect an updated estimate means that it is more accurate than the other method; leaving the values at verified sales figures for extended periods of time.

As for the whole 'pulled numbers from who knows where' issue, that's merely an issue with the lack of transparency to his sales data collection, and a problem that it could also be argued that VGChartz suffers from.

This was a while back, but I sat there and followed the numbers closely for a day or so. Writing down all the numbers, updating every few min (while I was at work), etc.

All the numbers were perfectly interpolated - i.e. there were no updates in-between (using the same start/end figures).

I then emailed the guy and asked him explicitly about this - and he admitted that this was exactly how the site worked (I may have that email still around somewhere).

As for the correctness of the numbers - I can't comment. He might have some sources that we don't - but I don't believe so. I think that our numbers are definitely more accurate.

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

you all have yet to figure out nextgenwars in MS run site 

 PS3 and Wii numbers are lower then vg yet 360 is higher .....



the numbers on nexgenwars are completely inaccurate and baseless though, i've done my own calculations for the numbers that have come from NPD, Japan (MC and Famitsu) and Europe scattered here and there and the PS3 and Wii numbers are way too low, while the 360 is way to high.

This doesn't give me faith in believing their numbers or in following the website or it's users / owner.  VGchartz is far more accurate as far as I am concerned, they are slightly higher estimates that the ACTUAL figures but I find this to be a better method.

Statistically the number on nexgenwars can't be trusted because it's so in-accurate.

Why did you sign up for just this thread marcusdragon?



Hus said:

you all have yet to figure out nextgenwars in MS run site

PS3 and Wii numbers are lower then vg yet 360 is higher .....


yeah, Hus, we know...everybody knows. It's been said many, many times, that nexgenwar's 360 numbers are higher than the other two, and we know that's because of their argument that all 10 million 360s were considered sold when Microsoft made that announcement a while back.

I don't like their system of adding sales at a specified time interval, but if they want to do that and then fix the numbers when announcements come, that's fine. Adding numbers over time does not make them any more accurate than adding numbers when announcements are made. Personally, I just don't like their numbers...they don't make sense to me and don't seem to have much backing.

EDIT: Well heck Origin, I joined nexgenwar's forums when they bashed our site...I just had to get my opinion out there...that's what forums are for.



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Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )