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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Diomedes NPD tracks until November 3rd, you might want to be careful tossing around your insults if you're not going to be better informed. ;>



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ioi said:
-These do not include Canada sales
-Star Wars Battlefront: Renegade Squadron is a pack in
-DS hardware is intentionally 10% or so higher
-Guitar Hero III on 360 presumably has a stand alone version as well, so not as different as it first looks.

I believe NPD have been undertracking Xbox360 for the last few months so I'm pretty happy with the comparisons - we are intentionally tracking higher than NPD on 360.

Note - I WILL NOT be making any major alterations to our figures in light of NPDs information. Most software is actually almost identical and it is 360 software we disagree most on.

Did I stumble on to nextgenwars bv accident or something?  These aren't small differences we're talking about here.  I like this site and hope it does better but I'm with Diomedes on this, NPD will easily win any credibility fight which isn't good for VGChartz.

According to the neogaf thread the 75k PS3 week will be in November's NPD.



Btw recent data from manufacturers and retailers on sell-through indicates NPD is undertracking 360 hardware and software and DS hardware, so we're now ignoring NPD and going with reality, what's so hard to understand about that?



Diomedes1976 said:
shams said:
Sony's claim HAS TO BE shipped figures. Its the only thing that makes sense. They have NO access to "retailer to consumer" sales - only units they sell to retailers.

Looking forward to the adjustment of the main figures + software figures. Going to change a lot.

Wii gains about 250k over the 360 worldwide, and almost 100k over the PS3 worldwide.

What do you know what has Sony access or not ?

For instance as paying client for NPD they have the FULL NPD report month after month ,same with Media Create ,GFK ,Game Charts etc etc .

Second Stringer told explicitly that they were selling between 30 and 40K consoles weekly ,exactly what they have sold (30K with US data alone ,with Canada it will be around 34K or so ) .They know what they have been selling then and they know what they are selling now .

Third ,if retailers were commanding some 30-40k consoles prior and now are commanding 75K one week and 100K the next its becasue they are getting out of stock .

Simple as that .

Actually, its real simple:

 - NPD does not track or report weekly sales - to anyone.

 - Everytime Sony says "sold" they mean "to retailer". Its ALWAYS been like this in the past - why would this be a one-off special case?

 - Or its because they are stocking up for the holidays? It may well be selling out - I'm not disputing this.

Just saying that common sense says that Sony is talking about "shipped" figures (i.e. "sold to retailer") rather than magically calculating how many units retailers are selling to consumers. If someone can prove to me that NPD release weekly sales tracking - then I may change my mind.

...

Just wait for NPD next month - you'll see that the figures don't match Sony's figures at all - then everyone will return to the "Oh, they mean shipped units" - as always happens.



Gesta Non Verba

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I understand this site is overtracking the 360 but I'd definetly put money that the NPD numbers are closer to realistic than the numbers we portray on here. I love this site but I'm gonna have to believe NPD numbers this time. I can't imagine NPD being off that much for a service that you have to pay for, versus VGC which is free. But the other numbers are tracked nicely, and the PS2 is severly undertracked... Is that on purpose also?



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Well ,I dont know ...but tracking it higher because someone at MS told so seems just wrong .

I mean ,all your experience puts you toward believeing 360 is selling better than NPD says .

But ,your experience comes from the people you know ,the samples you take etc .NPD simply has more samples ,thus their experience is greater .

As for Sony and PS3 numbers the 40Gb was introduced the 2November ...so only the first day of the 40Gb is included in here .I dont see such a big discrepancy .Sony data was arguably 35K units for 3 weeks (the 55K figure is vgchartz not Sony ) that makes 105K units and then another week with 6 days of 6K units and a seventh with the 40Gb launch that wasnt as the japanese one (with games ,new colours ,dual shock 3 etc ) .Once we add the canadian data to NPD we can see that the first day of the 40Gb was just the same as the prior data .Who knows ,maybe people got notice a few days later or something ,maybe the first day there wasnt Spiderman 3 movie bundle and people hold off .Dont know ,but dont seems to me as big as 200K units difference .

I regret you wont change the numbers .It would hurt the PS3 too ,but if you dont then in all the forums outside here people will take notice that theres a big difference between NPD and the site .And people will keep trusting NPD as long as they have a bigger sample than this site so that only means bad reputation for the site as not accurate .



The point is, our numbers are pretty much where we want them to be relative to NPD's numbers, therefore no major adjustments are going to be made. You can disagree with the methodology all you want, but it is what it is.



@The Source
I remember you starting a thread earlier this week about the Wii having a chance to get above 5M units sold within 12 NPD periods, I think the 519k should be more than enough to have succeeded?



ioi said:

While I would never recommend to someone in the industry to rely on your data and estimates to make business decisions, they are close enough (and I have heard this also from Nintendo and Microsoft employees) to make them interesting and worth discussing until the more official results release from the larger groups."
 

 Sorry, but i also believe more on NPD than the numbers on this site... but i guess you don't want to just copy NPD numbers each month.

 However all publishers and developers use NPD data when they are talking about NA sales, so it is as official as it can get... i can understand tracking 360 sales a bit higher, not almost 2x higher.



carlos710 - Capitán Primero: Nintendo Defense Force

"Wii are legion, for Wii are many"

DKII said:
Diomedes NPD tracks until November 3rd, you might want to be careful tossing around your insults if you're not going to be better informed. ;>

Yes and the 40Gb was shipped  november 2 so there isnt a week of 40Gb sales in this data.Maybe one day at best ,considering the products come to stores one day later to shipping  .That was what Stringer was talking about ,the full two weeks of PS3 sales after the 40Gb introduction .