When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[DonFerrari]

padib said:

DonFerrari said:

Just this year PS4 shall do about 10M, and following a slower drop than PS3 (because it is less expensive and had lower extra years) after PS4 release it shall do like another 6M in 2021 and 5M or so in the remaining years. Most projections/regression methods would put PS4 at 130M.

Switch is nearing its peak and no Nintendo system have sustained much after that to ensure more than doubling the sales.

Yes, for PS4, you're right. My prediction is one year late. 

@DonFerrari Okay, I corrected my mistake.

Switch

Current sales: 50.5m
YoY Feb 2021: 17m (67.5m)
YoY Feb 2022: 18m (75.5m)
YoY Feb 2023: 18m (93.5m)
YoY Feb 2024: 15m (108.5m)
YoY Feb 2025: 13m (121.5m)
YoY Feb 2026: 10m (131.5m)

The PS4 is selling 10.8m per year right in 2020, in 2019 it was selling ~18m last year. I see this trend for PS4

YoY Feb 2021: 10.8m (117.8m)
YoY Feb 2021: 6m (123.8m)
YoY Feb 2022: 4m (127.8m)
YoY Feb 2023: 2m (129.8m)
YoY Feb 2024: 1m (130.8m)
YoY Feb 2025: 0.5m (131.3m)
YoY Feb 2026: 0.25m (131.5m)

In my opinion the Switch will outsell the PS4 during the 2025 holidays.

I really don't see Switch having this double peak and for such a long time and then such a slow drop. But well we can only be sure when several years pass.