HylianSwordsman said:
I regard MN, IA, WI, OH, MI and PA to be elastic to semi-elastic swing states. IA and OH being the most elastic, MN, WI, MI and PA being less so. The former group is so elastic it finds itself on either side of the aisle from one election to the next all the time. The latter group is significantly less elastic, and usually follow each other, with MN lagging to the left of the other three, enough that it hasn't voted D since before Reagan. I personally believe we've reached a Republican high water mark for the latter group, and that a trend has started that will send it back the other way. Basing that mostly on polls and 2018 results. I'm also optimistic that Iowa will swing back for us as well, based on 2018 performance. OH is a harder one to read, but I think we've got a chance to flip it too. It usually follows the others a bit to the right. I certainly hope it swings, though, because the last time it voted against the winner was 1960. And even when the other 5 voted together for the Democrat, Ohio went for Bush in 2000 and that...ended very poorly... |
That might be so, but only because in past election cycles, Democrats still appealed to non-college educated rural Whites instead of suburbanites. So the coalitions that led Reps or Dems in the past to victory or defeat are different now. And the Midwest has these non-college educated White voters by the bucketload - way above the average for the US and more than even the South. These people can shift quite dramatically from blue to red and stick with it, as West Virginia proves.
