Any reason why do you think Sega would have become bright with N64-CD being a thing (so they would still have a CD company there to preassure them) or Sony not being in the Market?
They had early release of Genesis against SNES as well. So all point that Sega would have done basically the same mistakes.
About your expectations of Nintendo basically doubling their sales with the CD, what is your explanation that Nintendo having all advantages during SNES weren't able to significantly outsell Sega and why do you think the Europe and RotW would become much bigger sales to Nintendo? They simply didn't go there when they had Strong NES, competitive SNES and loser N64 so why in the alternate history would they also start caring?
Gotta pay closer attention. In the alternate scenario that I brought up about Sony not entering the market, I never mentioned the N64 being CD based.
I'm going off the assumption that in that alternate reality, the Nintendo 64 still goes with cartridges, while the Sega Saturn is the only one using discs. And because the Nintendo 64 wouldn't launch until June 1996 in Japan, September 1996, and March 1997 in Europe, that would give Sega an extra year to prepare for the Nintendo 64 and a near 2 year headstart in Japan. And because there would be no PlayStation, there's no pressure on Sega of America coming from Sega of Japan to go with the ultimately bone-headed move of rushing the Saturn's launch to beat the PlayStation to the market, because they've got an extra year. Which means they can take their time, prepare a proper marketing campaign, give retailers enough time to prepare their stock, and build the strongest launch lineup possible for a late 1995 or early 1996 Western release. More importantly, because the Saturn would have been the only CD-based system in this alternate scenario, that means Square (Final Fantasy VII, VIII, and IX), Enix (Dragon Quest VII), Konami (Metal Gear Solid), Namco (Tekken), Capcom (Resident Evil) and all the major Japanese 3rd party franchises that jumped to the PlayStation would have jumped to the Saturn instead. It would've required more work to program for the Saturn's architecture, but it would've been much more preferred than the archaic, restrictive, and costly choice of sticking with cartridges on the Nintendo 64. That means the Saturn would have thoroughly dominated in Japan. (It was already the best selling 5th generation system and outselling the PlayStation until Square dropped the Final Fantasy VII bomb, and from that point on, it was all over for Sega and Nintendo in Japan.) That would not only have drastically changed Sega's fortunes in Japan, but everywhere else as well. Especially since the Western 3rd party support that the PlayStation enjoyed so much from franchises like Tomb Raider, Grand Theft Auto, Crash, Spyro, etc. would've gone to the Saturn, with no other CD option available. Even if Nintendo were lucky enough to get N64 versions of those games, they would have been noticeably worse than the Saturn versions because of the difference in format. Because of all this, I’m convinced the Saturn would’ve been victorious in a no PlayStation reality where they were the only CD system vs a cartridge-based Nintendo 64.
As for your second point:
1) They DID significantly outsell the Genesis. It ended up winning the U.S., barely lost in Europe, and completely dominated Japan.
Final Worldwide totals:
SNES - 49.10 million
Genesis - 29.54 million.
A win by almost 20 million units. That's pretty significant to me, especially given how much smaller the market was back then.
2) Because all the exclusive 3rd party games and franchises that pushed the PlayStation to the heights it achieved, in Europe and everywhere else, would have either been multiplatform or Nintendo 64 exclusive. So the biggest advantage that the PlayStation had going for it? It's massive, more diverse, mostly exclusive game library? *snaps* Gone. Nintendo would've been the one with the bigger and wider library. And games sell hardware, don't they?
So the two systems that have very similar 3rd party libraries, with the Nintendo 64 having the slight edge in that department, with the absolute final nail in the coffin being Nintendo's 1st party offerings. Sony's 1st party offerings were piss-poor back then. Gran Turismo, Hot Shots Golf, and PaRappa the Rapper would not have cut it against the likes of Super Mario 64, Ocarina of Time, GoldenEye 007, Banjo-Kazooie, Super Smash Bros., etc. Those games would have been significantly different with a CD format instead of a cartidges, but Nintendo, being the acclaimed and proven game developers that they were and still are, would have found a way to make those games just as groundbreaking, acclaimed, and iconic in that alternate reality as they were in this reality.
It's simple common sense:
If both systems have Tomb Raider, Final Fantasy, Tekken, Metal Gear Solid, and all these amazing 3rd party games. They both cost the same price, what's the deciding factor at that point? First party. Do I go with the system that has cars, golf, and a rapping dog? Or the one with Mario, Zelda, and all these other familiar franchises everyone has known about since the 80s? A Nintendo 64-CD's supercharged library that still has all of Nintendo's 1st party games + all the 3rd party games that the PlayStation had, some of which might still be Nintendo exclusive like Final Fantasy VII, which blew up and was the biggest killer app the PlayStation had? I shouldn't have to explain how much this would have radically flipped the tables of the 5th generation.
Europe and RotW would have gradually gone to them in much higher numbers, because Nintendo would have had a lot more reasons for them to do so and they would have given them more reasons to do so once they saw the rapidly expanding market. It would'v'e been pretty fucking hard to say no to a system that had Super Mario 64, Ocarina of Time, Final Fantasy VII-IX, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, Resident Evil 2... Almost every single major 3rd party 5th generation game (minus Crash and Spyro) that drove the PlayStation to the heights it reached + the major, groundbreaking 1st party 5th generation games that carried the Nintendo 64 all in one system? If you honestly can't see how a system like THAT would have achieved massive numbers, in all territories, within a rapidly growing industry at the time, I have no idea what else to tell you.Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 25 August 2019
Pancho A. Ovies
Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019