| Jaicee said: Here's a more detailed prediction of how I think the primary season will go: 1) All but perhaps the top-polling seven or eight candidates drop out before the Iowa Caucus. 2) Biden and Sanders win the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. 3) Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg drop out, benefiting Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders respectively. 4) Biden wins in South Carolina. 5) Cory Booker drops out, benefiting Kamala Harris. 6) Biden wins in California and Texas. 7) Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke drop out, mostly benefiting Biden and ensuring his victory. |
I see step 1 happening, and 4, and eventually 5, but there's no way Warren drops out before California. I recall her campaign indicating something to this effect back when she was fading in the polls and nowhere near Bernie, so now that she's tied for or possibly straight up second place, that plan will definitely hold. If O'Rourke hangs in until Texas, I foresee him eating into Biden's potential vote there, pulling Biden down enough that he doesn't win Texas. Multiple polls have shown that Kamala Harris dropping out would benefit Warren more than Biden or Sanders. I'd guess this is because she tends to attract a certain kind of "progressive" that really wants a woman in the white house regardless of her economic policy preferences, and are only voting Kamala over Warren because they'd rather see a woman of color for intersectionality reasons, but would vote Warren if Kamala dropped out. If Warren holds until California as I believe she will, I think she'll stand a genuine chance of beating Kamala, which would probably make Kamala drop out, and if the polls I've seen are correct, this would be to Warren's benefit and provide a second wind for the campaign. As for the first contests, I don't see Biden or Sanders as shoe-ins for them yet.
