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Bofferbrauer2 said:

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.

Both of those two put together are not even half as big as Pokemon or Smash Bros.

Luigi's Mansion 2 did somewhere around 1.1-1.4 million in Japan. The highest that Mario and Sonic ever reached over there was around 440k, and that was on the DS - the highest selling system of all time in Japan. Rio 2016 did close to 300k on the 3DS.

Don't get me wrong, those are good, respectable numbers for a sports spinoff/crossover, but certainly not something that could sell consoles. 
Luigi's Mansion 3 would be doing a lot of the heavy lifting and I think that people will certainly buy Switch units to play that game, but nowhere near the amount that would buy one for Pokemon or Smash Bros.

Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019