I'd say yes. The Xbox One launched at $500 with a lot of controversy and it sold really well at launch. The One X is a mid gen console and launched at $500 and it seems to have done well also. A $500 next gen console without kinect controversy will sell well.
You honestly look at the Xbox One sales this gen compared to how the 360 did, and consider it selling well? I'm not dumping on Xbox just for the sake of it, mind you. I own one. And, yes, I waited until the price point was under $400 before doing so. But, I don't pretend that Microsoft has done well at all this gen. If Microsoft launches another $500 console, they will never see Xbox 360 level sales again. Of course, the fact that they are selling a disc-less system that is barely cheaper than the full model is a warning sign and pretty big red flag that they haven't learned anything about the importance of price point to the general consumer.