In progress NPD predicting tool

[Bofferbrauer2]

Mar1217 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's why I gave it up to 199$. I'm pretty sure by now the most expensive thing in the XBOS is the BD4K disc drive. Remove that and you can have a console with a very low pricetag... and some margin to give retailers to convince then stocking the unit. I calculate the production price of a discless XBO between $120 and $160 (20-25$ for casing, same for mainboard, around $30 for the APU and 20$ for the memory, plus 10-20$ assembly and shipping) depending on controllers, HDD (500GB for about 20$) and pack-in games, so even at $149.99 retailers could get some money out of it.

Plus, since Microsoft will make money with the games and especially gamepass with this unit, there's no reason for them not to subvention the unit to get them to retailers.

Subvention or not, I do not think retailers would have any incentive to sell an all digital console. They loose in the long run so why bother ?

Microsoft will probably be left to sell this iteration at their own store ... which I doubt many people will flock-in to buy this specific product.

Depends on the retailers. Gamestop probably wouldn't want without any other incentives, but I don't see an issue for general stores like Walmart.

RolStoppable said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's why I gave it up to 199$. I'm pretty sure by now the most expensive thing in the XBOS is the BD4K disc drive. Remove that and you can have a console with a very low pricetag... and some margin to give retailers to convince then stocking the unit. I calculate the production price of a discless XBO between $120 and $160 (20-25$ for casing, same for mainboard, around $30 for the APU and 20$ for the memory, plus 10-20$ assembly and shipping) depending on controllers, HDD (500GB for about 20$) and pack-in games, so even at $149.99 retailers could get some money out of it.

Plus, since Microsoft will make money with the games and especially gamepass with this unit, there's no reason for them not to subvention the unit to get them to retailers.

If the goal from the get-go is to subsidize such an SKU, then why go through the trouble when the existing Slim SKU could be subsidized all the same while being able to be produced in much larger numbers?

A disc drive costs what, ~$25 at most? Also, putting in a 500 GB HDD isn't thought through either, because that's filled up fast and the SKU would not be able to read discs to install games again, so repeated large downloads in a datacap country would be the norm for anyone who plays more than 5-10 games.

You have to remember that the PSP Go got rid of its UMD drive and in turn launched $50 more expensive than the regular PSP SKU. When retailers aren't going to see any money from a consoler buyer again, they want a hefty margin on this one-time sale. Realistically, I don't see how Microsoft could offer a discless Xbox One at all major retailers that is cheaper than a Slim.

A DVD drive costs even less than 25$, and a BD-Rom drive costs slightly more. But a BD4K drive has still a major pricetag due to scarcity and novelty. That's also one of the main reasons why 4K Blu-Ray players still cost around $500

The PSP Go was more expensive mainly because of the integrated Flash memory. Flash Memory was still very expensive at the time (it's also the reason why the Switch only has 32GB of it), so even a small amount was a major price point. But it's 16GB of flash memory in 2009 was akin to installing a 1TB SSD in the Switch nowadays. The PSP Go was too early on many aspects to be viable; price of flash memory back then is one of them. I even think that Sony sold the PSP Go with a strong subsidy to retailers because of the expensive Flash memory.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 April 2019