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peachbuggy said:
I think the original Splatoon vs. original MM is a pretty good analogy. Original Splatoon was more popular on Wii u by a bit. If the sequel on Switch doesn't easily surpass 10m the MM2 may struggle to reach it. If it comfortably surpasses it then using it as a yardstick MM2 has the chance to do so too.
For the record i voted yes, initially without putting too much thought into it.

Sales from Wii U to Switch don't necessarily scale equally though.

Smash sold 5.35m on Wii U but sold 12 million on Switch in less than a month.

3D World sold 5.8m on Wii U but Odyssey was at 13.76m at the end of 2018.