I expect Sony to cut the PS4 to 249 and the pro to 349.
I think you might be a bit too pessimistic on the XBO and Switch.
XBO should recover next month, it was so low mostly because the low price during the holidays cleared out all demand for the console in early to mid January.
Switch made the numbers you're predicting last year already with a much weaker game lineup (especially during summer and fall seasons) and yet is already considerably outselling last year's sales at the same time of year. I'm pretty sure Nintendo will have another go on the 20M this year, unless lowballing for sake of breaking the expectations.
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454