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Politics Discussion - Brexit - View Post

fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.

1. Would Ireland setting up their own "import controls" mean breaking the GFA or exiting the EU single market ?

@Bold Won't matter if Ireland won't enforce a hard border with Northern Ireland ... (as long as there's no hard border in place the UK will be content to smuggle as much as they want inside of Ireland and at large the EU)

Are you implying that the EU will prepare for customs checks between Ireland and the EU ? If so then Ireland will NOT be within the EU customs union anymore and by extension the single market as well since there WILL be barriers to trade between the EU and Ireland since the latter has NO CUSTOMS CHECKS with the former ... (having customs checks between a "supposedly common territory" defeats the idea of a customs 'union')

As for article 21, the EU has absolutely no jurisdiction over Ireland to enforce a hard border so it becomes an agreement between Ireland and the UK and the EU can't do ANYTHING in the instance of no deal. Given that Ireland isn't keen on having a border with Northern Ireland they'll apply for the exemption as stated in article 21 just like the UK ...  

Is it really something to laugh about ? Especially when both France and Italy could face floodgates of cheaper produce imports from the UK ? The EU doesn't seem to think it's all that funny given their demands over a hard border in the event of no deal ... (I wonder what also happens if Ireland isn't going to give into EU demands) 

As far as food is concerned, supply would be vastly enhanced since buying outside of the EU without tariffs are far cheaper and with less regulations. Hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken, and GMOs FTW! (Again benefits of not accepting the EU's ridiculous standards) Even with subsidies which is a lie since the UK feels far less benefits from CAP so most the funds goes to either France, Germany or Spain and even Italy benefits more from it than the UK but EU produce is still expensive as shit! EU food is overpriced but since Britain is stuck in a customs union where EU regulates that you can't have good shit like hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs so they're stuck with their stupidity and have no other options. The UK doesn't need to stockpile on anything really since the Irish border is open so what it needs are free trade agreements with other countries! It's not all about the tariff rates, it's more about the non-tariff barriers like regulations and refusing to use advanced American/Canadian methods to agriculture highly distorts market pricing. Americans or Canadians (this one has far shorter growing seasons compared to the EU) can enjoy the fact that they pay so little for such big portions since those guys are allowed to waste food like no tomorrow ... 

@Underlined Having ANY physical infrastructure would break the GFA so the EU can't demand this unless either Ireland caves in and decides to unilaterally violate the GFA to meet EU customs standards or Ireland is dropped out of the EU customs union itself for the EU to be able to effectively stop the smuggling ... 

I mean you can think that the UK will have it's cake and eat it too but it DOES lose something in the process with no deal like temporary stability. However, it's Ireland that stands to lose the most in all of this since Brexit will be a bigger blow to them and the EU WILL crack down on the smuggling from Ireland! What Ireland is doing is very dangerous to the EU's single market since the UK could use it's import and backdoor advantage to abuse a loophole so Ireland could end up getting kicked out of the customs union all in the name to arrogantly keep both wealth (customs union) and pride (reunification) all in the name of the so called *solidarity* to tolerate smuggling but if the EU decides to pull out Ireland from the customs union it could make Northern Ireland a lot less attracted to the idea of reunification with a poorer nation ... (even after no deal, Ireland isn't out of the woods yet)

The UK doing no deal might be dumb but DON'T think for a moment what Ireland is doing isn't dumb either and if they're going to be bitter about it until the end we'll see just how long they can maintain without single market access ... (it's just the simple reality that the EU won't tolerate goods coming from Ireland without checking and applying tariffs to it) 

Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

LMAO @TLDRNews, that source could not anymore biased ... (the guy behind it hardly ever gives the upsides of Brexit or let alone no deal) 

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.