So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).
So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.