Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

[Mr Puggsly]

zorg1000 said:

tripenfall said:
XBOX One has now reportedly passed the 40 million mark but I'm still not convinced it has another 10 million left in it. Remember that so far in 2018 the XBone has sold 4-5 million units and that will probably decline in 2019.
Thoughts?

It should do another ~2.5 million this year (did ~3 million last 6 weeks of 2017) which would put it at 42.5 million lifetime and ~7 million for the year.

2019 will likely see a moderate decline like you said so maybe 5 million putting it at 47.5 million.

2020 and onward should easily do another 2.5 million so passing 50 million should happen.

I agree with the first part, its looking like it will do 7+ million this year.

New consoles are likely going to be announced in 2019, but how MS positions the X1 also matters. I really think MS is going to extend the life of X1 and X1X into the 9th gen to bolster their subscription services and last gen consoles tend to stay relevant for a few years.

I feel like the 9th gen consoles need to be $499 to be a significant upgrade over the mid gen upgrades. I'm talking modern CPUs much more capable of 60 fps, maybe ~10TF GPU and 24-32GB of RAM. That's what we need for a significant improvement over the X1X. However, the X1X could still be a viable way to play 9th gen games at a lower price.

Its worth noting the 360 and PS3 had good sales in 2012 even though new consoles were announced. There was a big decline in 2013 of course but still pretty good. Things could be different this time depending on prices of PS4 Pro/Xbox One X vs 9th gen prices. 8th gen consoles will still get notable support for a few years into the 9th gen regardless.

X1 passing SNES is basically guaranteed at this rate. How much above that is a matter of what MS does with X1 in the future.