RolStoppable said: 1. I am not seeing a trend where console sales are getting more frontloaded with each passing generation. The only verifiable trend in generational console sales is that you can't count on there being a trend as things can change dramatically from one generation to the next. |
First week of sales / lifetime sales:
Wii: 0.53M / 101M
WiiU: 0.47M / 14M
NS: 1.40M / ???
Either you believe NS will sell more than 250M or generations (at least for Nintendo) are becoming more front loaded.
RolStoppable said: 2. You could break down Wii U sales into 12 month periods, having the first such period going from mid-November 2012 to mid-November 2013. This way you get comparable timeframes and each one has the benefit of only one holiday season. |
Too much work for me. Feel free to do it yourself and I'll accept your numbers.
RolStoppable said: 3. My prediction of more than 100m constitutes a minimum, hence the "more than". I didn't need to raise the stakes any higher, because the VGC consensus was so low. When people were predicting 30-40m units, then I would have already been far above the average with 70m or 80m. 100m is a nice round number and provides more than enough shock value; it was also the highest poll option in the thread where I originally posted this prediction. Using 110m, 120m etc. wouldn't have had any benefit for me, rather it would have only made it harder for me to be right. |
It would benefit you if you came with a number instead of a (infinite) range because this way you're not as committed as I am, and then your critics are not really critics. They're just attacks from a person that doesn't quite understand how hard it is to make a real prediction.
RolStoppable said: 4. If you find the time to read my thread's original post, you'll come across a link to a prediction thread with a better poll. Your prediction of 20m isn't an outlier as it isn't far below the average of 30-40m. Most predictions were in the range of 20-50m at the time. |
I have opened all the links from the OP and didn't find it. Please post it here.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M