The real reasons behind mid-gen refreshes

[KBG29]

The whole electronics industry has changed. Consoles are no longer in an isolated corner of the market. They are squaring off against competition from every corner.

In the past the consoles was the most logical choice for DVD Playback, and streaming services. Now that front is uder attack from Smart TVs, Set Top Boxes, Cable Boxes, and Streaming Sticks that use a smartphone to grab media.

They are also not the only player in town for games on the TV anymore. Amazon Fire TV has games, not great, but games. Steam is becoming more possible on TV with small form factor PCs, and Steam link. There is also the Nvidia Sheild which can do both media, local games and streaming.

Non of these competitors sit on tech for 5, 6, or 7 years. There are revisions to all of the competitive devices on a yearly bases. They add better wireless connectivity, lower power consumption, the latest video and audio processing, faster CPU/GPU processing, more RAM, more Storage, and continually improve the user experience.

Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are moving to scalable generations because they have to. The New 3DS, PS4 Pro, and The Scorpio are a must for consoles to stay competitive with the massive competition they face on every front.

Beyond the above, there is also the fact that tech growth has slowed and we have reached the point of massive diminishing returns. The increase in technology over a 5 - 7 year period in no longer enough to justify a full generational change in the way games are made. In 2020 with 7nm tech, we will only be able to achive a leap in tech, that is equivalent to half of the leap we have seen in every generation since Sony entered the market. It won't be until ~2023 with 3nm fabrication that we will have a leap in tech from the PS4 and XBO that can justify a new generation, and cut from the PS4 and XBO hardware.

For all the reasons above I fully expect Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo to have yearly revisions of their hardware, with notable revisions every 2 - 4 year depending on how the fabrication process matures. I don't see them cutting ties and moving what could be considered a new generation any quicker than once every 10 years.

I fully expect one more revision to the PS4 and XBO platforms before the bar is rest. I expect to see mobile counterparts to both PlayStation and Xbox either under the brand or via Surface and Xperia. I expect to see Nintendo move to a yearly revision model that is almost identical to Phones, especially with their partenership with Nvidia, and the yearly improvements made to the Tegra processors.

This is not double dipping, it is not just about new TVs, nor is it about PS4 and XBO being to weak. It is about changed market, and trying to stay relevant. On the consumer side the choice is yours. Buy a PS or XB day one, and ride it out for 10 - 12 years, upgrade every 6 years, every 3 years, or every year.The great thing is, the choice is there for you to make.

Personally, I will be upgrading my PlayStation ecosystem every year, and will do the same with a Phone, Tablet/Laptop, and Handheld versions if they arrive. On the XB and Nin side, I will be getting the Switch and the Scorpio, and will upgrade again after either significant features are added, or a generational separation occurs. Thanks to this I will no longer be buying into Windows, iOS, or Android devices in the future.