How well will Metal Gear Solid 4 sell in Japan?

[ZenfoldorVGI]

TheSource said:

Looking at when MGS4 launches in Japan, I don't think it is going to have the impact some people are expecting it to have.

Metal Gear Solid 2 on PS2 launched when PS2 was at about the numbers Wii has now ~6.2 million. The game sold to almost 500,000 users week one, and eventually sold nearly 900,000 units in Japan.

PS2 sales went from ~42k to ~118k when MGS2 released and then stabilized at enormous levels because the game was the main holiday title.

Metal Gear Solid 4 data will be in the week ending five weeks after May 10 (June 14). PS3 sales will likely be 2.15-2.25 million when the game releases.

Judging by the size of the user base, the non-holiday release, pricing, etc

I would put the game at 175k-225k week one...with PS3 averaging 30k/week for four weeks after its release.

I'm thinking it gets to ~500k in Japan.

What do you all think?

 

 

I think your overestimating its legs as a hardware mover. PS3 might only get a bump for 2 weeks is my guess.

However, I think you are low on your software sales.

In Japan, every PS3 owner will get this, due to lack of options. Like DMC before it, it will sell equivelantly to last gen itterations due to lack of choice on the PS3, PS2 had plenty of choice when MGS4 came out.

That said, remember that in Japan the PS2 was the leading console, and the Japanese tend to shun the PS3 this gen when it comes to hardware sales. We'll see a boost for 2 weeks and similar sales to MGS3, however, it will have no lasting effect, and it won't move that much hardware, just like all the other big games this gen for the PS3 outside of others.

 

No need to be conservative in your predictions. No matter how much the Sony fans rue them, eventually you'll probably be proven right twice over, and their temporary hate has already been achieved simply by creating this topic.